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Board's nonfinancial corporate equity-to-net-worth measure is at the 97.03th percentile of its retained history since 1980. High historical valuation is vulnerability, not proof of a bubble or its timing."],"headline":"Valuation vulnerability is high, while financial stress is subdued and payrolls are 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caution","limitations":["This is an explicit ERO interpretation policy, not a statistically calibrated crash or recession forecast.","Daily, monthly and quarterly evidence retains its actual source period. Latest available is not real-time market pricing.","OFR is global financial stress; Z.1 covers broad nonfinancial corporations, including private firms and inward FDI. Neither isolates AI or listed U.S. equities.","Bank runs, private leverage, market concentration and AI earnings expectations are not comprehensively measured.","Historical comparisons use retained current revisions, not reconstructed historical real-time information. A positive yield curve does not erase earlier inversion risk.","Weekly claims, EBP changes and OFR components are descriptive supplements. Their incremental crisis-forecast performance is not established; they do not add independent votes or calibrated event probabilities to the four-channel policy.","Income/spending growth and BIS debt-service ratios describe economic demand and payment capacity. The income measure excludes transfer receipts; the household ratio includes nonprofit institutions serving households. Quarterly BIS estimates arrive with a substantial delay. The history uses revisions available at this snapshot, not inferred original release vintages. These additions supply no validated crisis thresholds, independent alarm votes or calibrated event probabilities.","Claims comparisons use published values retained from several releases; older weeks may not include every later seasonal revision."],"method_id":"ero_public_risk_synthesis","method_version":"3.0.0","policy_sha256":"0090eacc1eab3550b5a21ffd69f503bff9fdf3efa15b3aceb06cf9458eea67f2","risk_state":"VALUATION_CAUTION","schema_version":"1.0.0","status":"PARTIAL","summary":"The Board's nonfinancial corporate equity-to-net-worth measure is at the 97.03th percentile of its retained history since 1980. High historical valuation is vulnerability, not proof of a bubble or its timing. OFR's global financial stress index is not above its historical average; it does not currently confirm an acute market-stress episode. The conclusion is qualified by missing evidence; see the unavailable checks below. On the latest four-week comparisons, initial claims rose and continuing claims fell. The corporate-credit premium fell over three months through 2026-07-31, consistent with stronger risk appetite. OFR financial stress is down 0.01 index points over the latest 20 published observations through 2026-09-07. Real income excluding transfers and consumer spending both expanded over three months through 2026-07-31, supporting household demand in that period. Over twelve months, real income excluding transfers was down 0.38% and consumer spending was up 2.14%; the recent and annual directions differ. Household debt service was up 0.1 percentage points of income from a year earlier through 2025-12-31. Corporate debt service was down 1.1 percentage points of income from a year earlier through 2025-12-31. Debt-service evidence describes delayed capacity, not current market conditions.","supplementary_evidence":{"corporate_credit":{"derived_keys":["ebp_level","gz_spread_level","ebp_change_3_months"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["excess_bond_premium","corporate_spread"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"The Excess Bond Premium is -0.32 percentage points for 2026-07-31, down 0.12 percentage points over three months. The GZ corporate spread is 0.84 percentage points for 2026-07-31. A rising EBP is consistent with weaker corporate-bond risk appetite. Its level and change do not supply a crash probability."},"debt_service_capacity":{"derived_keys":["household_debt_service_level","household_debt_service_change_4_quarters","household_debt_service_history_percentile","corporate_debt_service_level","corporate_debt_service_change_4_quarters","corporate_debt_service_history_percentile"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["household_debt_service","corporate_debt_service"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"Households including nonprofit institutions serving households through 2025-12-31: estimated debt service was 8% of income, up 0.1 percentage points from a year earlier, with an own-history percentile rank of 18.52 across 108 quarters since 1999-Q1. Nonfinancial corporations through 2025-12-31: estimated debt service was 37.5% of income, down 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier, with an own-history percentile rank of 5.56 across 108 quarters since 1999-Q1. BIS ratios are model estimates with smoothed income and assumed loan maturities, published with a substantial quarterly delay. Rising ratios mean more income committed to debt payments in the reported period. Sector levels are not directly comparable; each percentile describes only that sector's history, not a crisis threshold or probability."},"income_and_spending":{"derived_keys":["real_income_ex_transfers_change_3_months_annualized_percent","real_income_ex_transfers_change_12_months_percent","real_consumption_change_3_months_annualized_percent","real_consumption_change_12_months_percent"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["real_income_ex_transfers","real_consumption"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"Real personal income excluding transfers through 2026-07-31: up 2.26% at an annualized rate over three months, down 0.38% over twelve months. Real consumer spending through 2026-07-31: up 3.33% at an annualized rate over three months, up 2.14% over twelve months. These are inflation-adjusted, seasonally adjusted flows. Three-month annualization describes the pace if repeated for a year; it is not a forecast. Income excludes transfer receipts, so comparing these levels cannot establish a household saving rate."},"ofr_components":{"derived_keys":["ofr_headline_change_20_observations","ofr_credit_contribution","ofr_credit_change_20_observations","ofr_equity_contribution","ofr_equity_change_20_observations","ofr_safe_assets_contribution","ofr_safe_assets_change_20_observations","ofr_funding_contribution","ofr_funding_change_20_observations","ofr_volatility_contribution","ofr_volatility_change_20_observations","ofr_component_residual","ofr_component_change_residual"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["financial_stress","ofr_credit","ofr_equity","ofr_safe_assets","ofr_funding","ofr_volatility"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"OFR stress is down 0.01 index points over 20 published observations (2026-08-10 to 2026-09-07). Safe assets contributed the largest upward change (0.03 index points). All category contributions are at or below zero on 2026-09-07. The published category sum differs from the headline; the residual is retained explicitly. Categories explain one composite index and are not independent warning signals."},"weekly_claims":{"derived_keys":["initial_claims_average_4_weeks","initial_claims_change_4_weeks_percent","initial_claims_change_52_weeks_percent","continuing_claims_average_4_weeks","continuing_claims_change_4_weeks_percent","continuing_claims_change_52_weeks_percent"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["initial_claims","continuing_claims"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"Initial claims averaged 207250 over four weeks ending 2026-08-29, up 4.15% from 4 weeks earlier, down 10.09% from 52 weeks earlier. Continuing claims averaged 1781750 over four weeks ending 2026-08-22, down 0.5% from 4 weeks earlier, down 8.37% from 52 weeks earlier. Both measures describe insured unemployment and share the labor channel with payrolls and unemployment; they are not separate crisis confirmations."}},"unknowns":["The exact Sahm-style recession check is unavailable because its full monthly lookback is not valid. Missing CPS months are not skipped or filled."],"watch_next":["A rise in OFR stress alongside significant SLOOS tightening would strengthen the financial-risk diagnosis.","A negative three-month payroll change or a valid Sahm-style warning would strengthen the employment-risk diagnosis.","High valuations with emerging financial or labor stress would be more concerning than high valuations alone."]},"snapshot":{"as_of":"2026-09-10T00:35:39Z","content_sha256":"f004bde27e969e3c81739b5588813c41b24e66d3926e28a0455a2692f9797820","current":false,"generated_at":"2026-09-10T00:47:33Z","profile_id":"us_macro_financial","profile_version":"10.0.0","snapshot_id":"ero_us_macro_financial_20260910T003539Z_f004bde27e96"}}