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Fixed maturity assumptions, income smoothing and some interpolated U.S. inputs mean these are modeled servicing burdens, not a census of exact payments.","Compare each U.S. sector with its own history from 1999. Household and corporate levels have different income definitions; their levels must not be compared directly or treated as universal crisis thresholds.","Households include nonprofit institutions serving households; corporations are nonfinancial corporations. Source values are quarterly, not seasonally adjusted, and not rescaled from percent.","Publication normally trails the source quarter by about 5.5 months. The latest published period can be about 8.5 months old before the next quarterly release; a successful poll does not make it current market evidence.","The expanding historical percentile and four-quarter change describe debt-service capacity. Forty quarters is a history-coverage requirement, not proof of predictive accuracy."],"metric_id":"us_household_debt_service","output":{"display_decimals":1,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"percent"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"Household debt-service ratio","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the latest original published value for its native economic period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve exact source Decimal values; units and source period remain explicit. No extra deflation or annual-rate rescaling.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"2.0.0","description":"Four-week average claims percentage change from thirteen weeks earlier.","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"exact_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"weekly","minimum_history":30},"inputs":[{"name":"initial_claims","required":true,"role":"claims_level","series_id":"us_initial_claims"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"specification_only","registry_key":"percent_change_of_moving_average","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["HYPOTHESIS-stage interpretation is not production-approved core evidence.","Claims are noisy and affected by administration","disasters","strikes","and seasonality."],"metric_id":"us_initial_claims_acceleration","output":{"display_decimals":1,"risk_direction":"higher","unit":"percent"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"Initial unemployment claims acceleration","transform":{"formula_statement":"100 * (MA4_t / MA4_t-13w - 1)","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Decimal arithmetic at report boundary; no imputation.","parameters":{"comparison_lag_periods":13,"moving_average_periods":4},"primitive":"percent_change_of_moving_average"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"8.0.0","description":"U.S. nonfarm payroll employment","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"monthly","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_observation","series_id":"us_nonfarm_payrolls"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Total nonfarm payroll employment counts jobs on establishment payrolls, not distinct employed persons; it excludes farm employment and other CES out-of-scope employment.","Monthly estimates are revised and subject to annual benchmark and seasonal revisions. Preserve preliminary and revised source footnotes with each vintage.","The primary assessment compares employment levels across three complete calendar months. Positive or negative change is descriptive evidence, not a calibrated recession probability.","No missing month is interpolated. FIRST_RETRIEVAL governs availability of the current revised API window; annual observations are excluded.","Payroll employment and CPS unemployment describe related labor conditions; they do not establish two independent confirmations."],"metric_id":"us_nonfarm_payrolls","output":{"display_decimals":0,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"thousand_jobs"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"U.S. nonfarm payroll employment","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the original published us_nonfarm_payrolls observation for the latest available completed monthly period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve source precision in canonical observations. No interpolation, inferred publication timestamps or rescaling.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"8.0.0","description":"Nonfinancial corporate equity / net worth","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"quarterly","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_observation","series_id":"us_nonfinancial_corporate_equity_net_worth"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["The published ratio is 100 times market equity divided by estimated balance-sheet net worth; its numerator includes corporate equities and foreign direct investment equity.","This broad nonfinancial corporate measure includes private businesses; it is not a current stock-index or technology-sector valuation measure.","Asset measurement, intangible capital and business composition limit historical comparability. A value above 100 or a high historical percentile is not a proven bubble or crash threshold.","Quarterly releases normally follow quarter-end by about ten weeks; current revised history is retained prospectively, without historical point-in-time claims.","The dictionary says Percent Change but the reviewed Board formula defines a percentage level. Preserve original precision without scaling or calculating growth.","This metric supports the declared primary assessment as valuation context and does not contribute to the retained legacy ordinal score."],"metric_id":"us_nonfinancial_corporate_equity_net_worth","output":{"display_decimals":2,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"percent"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"Nonfinancial corporate equity / net worth","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the original published us_nonfinancial_corporate_equity_net_worth observation for the latest available completed quarterly period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve source precision in canonical observations. No interpolation, inferred publication timestamps or rescaling.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"9.0.0","description":"OFR credit contribution","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"daily","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_reading","series_id":"us_ofr_credit_contribution"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","The five category contributions explain one index. They are not independent confirmations; source rounding can leave a small residual.","The equity component reflects observed market stress, not a structural bubble valuation measure.","Current revised observations are published with a two-business-day lag; first retrieval establishes availability."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_credit_contribution","output":{"display_decimals":3,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"index_points"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"OFR credit contribution","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the latest original published reading for its native economic period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve exact Decimal source precision in canonical observations; display counts as integers and rates or contributions to three decimals.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"9.0.0","description":"OFR equity valuation contribution","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"daily","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_reading","series_id":"us_ofr_equity_contribution"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","The five category contributions explain one index. They are not independent confirmations; source rounding can leave a small residual.","The equity component reflects observed market stress, not a structural bubble valuation measure.","Current revised observations are published with a two-business-day lag; first retrieval establishes availability."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_equity_contribution","output":{"display_decimals":3,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"index_points"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"OFR equity valuation contribution","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the latest original published reading for its native economic period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve exact Decimal source precision in canonical observations; display counts as integers and rates or contributions to three decimals.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"6.0.0","description":"OFR global financial market stress relative to its historical average","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"daily","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"ofr_fsi","required":true,"role":"published_index","series_id":"us_ofr_financial_stress"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Positive values mean stress above the historical average; negative values mean below it. Zero is a descriptive reference, not an alarm threshold.","Global stress is not a U.S. bubble valuation measure or a probability of a crash. Calm conditions do not exclude vulnerability.","Published index revisions are retained prospectively. Components overlap the headline and cannot supply independent confirmations."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_financial_stress","output":{"display_decimals":3,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"index_points"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"OFR global financial stress","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the original published OFR Financial Stress Index observation.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve source precision in canonical observations; round the metric to three decimal places. No re-estimation, standardization, or component reconstruction.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"9.0.0","description":"OFR funding contribution","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"daily","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_reading","series_id":"us_ofr_funding_contribution"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","The five category contributions explain one index. They are not independent confirmations; source rounding can leave a small residual.","The equity component reflects observed market stress, not a structural bubble valuation measure.","Current revised observations are published with a two-business-day lag; first retrieval establishes availability."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_funding_contribution","output":{"display_decimals":3,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"index_points"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"OFR funding contribution","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the latest original published reading for its native economic period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve exact Decimal source precision in canonical observations; display counts as integers and rates or contributions to three decimals.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"9.0.0","description":"OFR safe assets contribution","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"daily","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_reading","series_id":"us_ofr_safe_assets_contribution"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","The five category contributions explain one index. They are not independent confirmations; source rounding can leave a small residual.","The equity component reflects observed market stress, not a structural bubble valuation measure.","Current revised observations are published with a two-business-day lag; first retrieval establishes availability."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_safe_assets_contribution","output":{"display_decimals":3,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"index_points"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"OFR safe assets contribution","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the latest original published reading for its native economic period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve exact Decimal source precision in canonical observations; display counts as integers and rates or contributions to three decimals.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"9.0.0","description":"OFR volatility contribution","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"daily","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_reading","series_id":"us_ofr_volatility_contribution"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","The five category contributions explain one index. They are not independent confirmations; source rounding can leave a small residual.","The equity component reflects observed market stress, not a structural bubble valuation measure.","Current revised observations are published with a two-business-day lag; first retrieval establishes availability."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_volatility_contribution","output":{"display_decimals":3,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"index_points"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"OFR volatility contribution","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the latest original published reading for its native economic period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve exact Decimal source precision in canonical observations; display counts as integers and rates or contributions to three decimals.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"10.0.0","description":"Real personal consumption expenditures","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"monthly","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_reading","series_id":"us_real_consumption"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["BEA published real level in millions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates; it is not nominal income or a monthly cash total. No extra deflation or annual-rate rescaling is applied.","Real income excluding current transfers measures household income apart from transfers; real consumption measures spending volume. They complement labor evidence within the real-economy channel and are not independent crisis votes.","The source is monthly and subject to revisions and annual updates. Three-month annualized changes and twelve-month changes are descriptive, not validated recession thresholds.","The reviewed workbook supplies income from 1959 and monthly real consumption from 2007. No earlier consumption history, missing observation or historical vintage is invented."],"metric_id":"us_real_consumption","output":{"display_decimals":0,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"millions_chained_2017_usd_saar"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"Real personal consumption expenditures","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the latest original published value for its native economic period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve exact source Decimal values; units and source period remain explicit. No extra deflation or annual-rate rescaling.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"10.0.0","description":"Real personal income excluding current transfer receipts","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"monthly","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_reading","series_id":"us_real_income_ex_transfers"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["BEA published real level in millions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates; it is not nominal income or a monthly cash total. No extra deflation or annual-rate rescaling is applied.","Real income excluding current transfers measures household income apart from transfers; real consumption measures spending volume. They complement labor evidence within the real-economy channel and are not independent crisis votes.","The source is monthly and subject to revisions and annual updates. Three-month annualized changes and twelve-month changes are descriptive, not validated recession thresholds.","The reviewed workbook supplies income from 1959 and monthly real consumption from 2007. No earlier consumption history, missing observation or historical vintage is invented."],"metric_id":"us_real_income_ex_transfers","output":{"display_decimals":0,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"millions_chained_2017_usd_saar"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"Real personal income excluding current transfer receipts","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the latest original published value for its native economic period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve exact source Decimal values; units and source period remain explicit. No extra deflation or annual-rate rescaling.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"8.0.0","description":"Sahm-style unemployment warning indicator","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"monthly","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":15},"inputs":[{"name":"published_value","required":true,"role":"published_observation","series_id":"us_unemployment_rate"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"moving_average_gap_from_previous_minimum","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["ERO computes this Sahm-style indicator from the current BLS unemployment vintage; it is not the published real-time Sahm series.","Require fifteen consecutive nonmissing calendar-month observations: the current three-month average and twelve preceding three-month averages. Do not skip missing windows, interpolate, or floor negative results at zero.","October 2025 CPS data were not collected; any required window containing that month remains unavailable. The published unemployment level and other valid labor evidence remain usable.","A rise of 0.50 percentage points is the established Sahm warning threshold, not proof of an NBER recession or a calibrated event probability; false alarms are possible.","Population controls and seasonal revisions affect comparability. All required input vintages must be available by the assessment time.","This shares the CPS input with unemployment context and cannot count as independent labor evidence or contribute to the legacy ordinal score."],"metric_id":"us_sahm_current_bls","output":{"display_decimals":2,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"percentage_points"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"Sahm-style unemployment warning indicator","transform":{"formula_statement":"MA3_t - min(MA3_t-1, MA3_t-2, ..., MA3_t-12), where MA3_t = (U_t + U_t-1 + U_t-2) / 3; all fifteen calendar-month observations must be present.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Use Decimal arithmetic and compare the unrounded gap with 0.50 percentage points; missing windows remain unavailable and negative gaps remain negative.","parameters":{"moving_average_periods":3,"previous_average_periods":12},"primitive":"moving_average_gap_from_previous_minimum"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"6.0.0","description":"Net percentage of responding domestic banks reporting tighter C&I lending standards for large and middle-market firms during the preceding quarter.","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"quarterly","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":8},"inputs":[{"name":"net_tightening","required":true,"role":"observed_net_percentage","series_id":"us_sloos_ci_large_domestic"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["A net percentage is the tightening share minus the easing share; it is not the percentage of all banks that tightened.","Current-revised Board history is not historical point-in-time evidence.","Uses the latest available native-frequency economic period within the source freshness policy; repeated retrievals do not create new confirmation periods."],"metric_id":"us_sloos_ci_large_middle_tightening","output":{"display_decimals":1,"risk_direction":"higher","unit":"percent"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"SLOOS C&I lending standards for large and middle-market firms","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the selected canonical net percentage of banks tightening standards.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve source decimal text and use Decimal comparison.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"6.0.0","description":"Net percentage of responding domestic banks reporting tighter C&I lending standards for small firms during the preceding quarter.","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"quarterly","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":8},"inputs":[{"name":"net_tightening","required":true,"role":"observed_net_percentage","series_id":"us_sloos_ci_small_domestic"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["A net percentage is the tightening share minus the easing share; it is not the percentage of all banks that tightened.","Current-revised Board history is not historical point-in-time evidence.","Uses the latest available native-frequency economic period within the source freshness policy; repeated retrievals do not create new confirmation periods."],"metric_id":"us_sloos_ci_small_tightening","output":{"display_decimals":1,"risk_direction":"higher","unit":"percent"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"SLOOS C&I lending standards for small firms","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the selected canonical net percentage of banks tightening standards.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve source decimal text and use Decimal comparison.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"7.0.0","description":"Civilian unemployment rate, age 16 and over","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"latest_available_period","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"monthly","max_age_policy":"series_stale_threshold","minimum_history":1},"inputs":[{"name":"unemployment_rate","required":true,"role":"published_rate","series_id":"us_unemployment_rate"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"identity","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["The unemployment rate describes the share of the civilian labor force actively seeking work and available for work; it is not a crash probability.","Monthly current revised estimates retain published missing periods and source footnotes. No gaps are interpolated and annual averages are excluded.","Population-control updates and seasonal revisions can affect comparability. This rate level is descriptive context, not the Sahm recession indicator."],"metric_id":"us_unemployment_rate","output":{"display_decimals":1,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"percent"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"U.S. unemployment rate","transform":{"formula_statement":"Output the original BLS seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate for the latest available monthly period.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Preserve source precision in canonical observations; display one decimal place. No interpolation or Sahm transformation.","parameters":{},"primitive":"identity"}},{"definition_approval":"approved","definition_version":"5.0.0","description":"Mean of paired daily Treasury constant-maturity par-yield differences for the completed month; context only.","evaluation":{"alignment_policy":"aggregate_mean","as_of_policy":"latest_available","frequency":"monthly","minimum_history":60},"inputs":[{"name":"ten_year","required":true,"role":"long_yield","series_id":"us_treasury_cmt_10y"},{"name":"three_month","required":true,"role":"short_yield","series_id":"us_treasury_cmt_3m"}],"lifecycle":{"implementation_verification":"test_verified","registry_key":"monthly_average_difference","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Context only: inversion has variable lead and cannot confirm contraction.","Re-steepening is not automatically an all-clear.","Direct Treasury components replace the prior FRED spread without asserting identical historical vintages.","A minimum of 60 paired daily observations is required; this is an operational history floor, not a calibrated forecast."],"metric_id":"us_yield_curve_10y3m","output":{"display_decimals":2,"risk_direction":"none","unit":"percentage_points"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","title":"Monthly average Treasury ten-year minus three-month yield","transform":{"formula_statement":"For identical daily dates in the completed month, average (long_yield percent minus short_yield percent); output percentage points.","implementation_version":"2.0.0","numeric_policy":"Decimal arithmetic; pair exact economic dates, reject missing or invalid constituents, round only the final output.","parameters":{},"primitive":"monthly_average_difference"}}],"scenarios":[],"signals":[{"definition_version":"2.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Proposed transform and anchors require point-in-time study.","claim":"Claims acceleration is a hypothesis-stage labor deterioration signal that requires broader confirmation.","references":["US_Department_of_Labor_initial_claims"],"validation_maturity":"HYPOTHESIS"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Not eligible as production-approved core evidence until its study gate passes.","Claims are noisy and affected by administration and seasonality."],"metric_id":"us_initial_claims_acceleration","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":3,"escalate_periods":2,"exit_hysteresis_score":5,"max_age_between_confirmations":"35d","unknown_policy":"freeze_deescalation"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[{"score":0,"state":"low","value":"-10"},{"score":15,"state":"watch","value":"0"},{"score":35,"state":"elevated","value":"10"},{"score":65,"state":"high","value":"20"},{"score":100,"state":"critical","value":"35"}],"direction":"higher"},"signal_id":"claims_acceleration_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.","claim":"Administrative unemployment-insurance claims cover eligible insured workers, not all unemployment.","references":["https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/wkclaims/report.asp"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Supports the primary descriptive assessment without new ordinal thresholds, independent confirmations, or additional coverage votes."],"metric_id":"us_dol_continuing_claims_sa","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"28d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"continuing_claims_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"10.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source context; the complete assessment and these supplementary growth/capacity interpretations are not established as calibrated crisis forecasts.","claim":"BIS estimates interest and amortisation payments as a percentage of sector income. Fixed maturity assumptions, income smoothing and some interpolated U.S. inputs mean these are modeled servicing burdens, not a census of exact payments.","references":["https://data.bis.org/topics/DSR","https://www.bis.org/statistics/dsr/dsr_doc.pdf"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Descriptive economic context only; no new ordinal threshold, independent confirmation, core coverage vote or calibrated event probability."],"metric_id":"us_corporate_debt_service","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"300d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"corporate_debt_service_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"8.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published source interpretation and explicitly declared primary assessment policy; no legacy ordinal severity calibration.","claim":"The published ratio is 100 times market equity divided by estimated balance-sheet net worth; its numerator includes corporate equities and foreign direct investment equity.","references":["https://www.federalreserve.gov/apps/fof/SeriesAnalyzer.aspx?s=FL103164106&t=","https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/html/S11_1_b.htm"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["The published ratio is 100 times market equity divided by estimated balance-sheet net worth; its numerator includes corporate equities and foreign direct investment equity.","This broad nonfinancial corporate measure includes private businesses; it is not a current stock-index or technology-sector valuation measure.","Asset measurement, intangible capital and business composition limit historical comparability. A value above 100 or a high historical percentile is not a proven bubble or crash threshold.","Quarterly releases normally follow quarter-end by about ten weeks; current revised history is retained prospectively, without historical point-in-time claims.","The dictionary says Percent Change but the reviewed Board formula defines a percentage level. Preserve original precision without scaling or calculating growth.","This metric supports the declared primary assessment as valuation context and does not contribute to the retained legacy ordinal score."],"metric_id":"us_nonfinancial_corporate_equity_net_worth","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"210d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"corporate_equity_net_worth_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.","claim":"The EBP is the part of the GZ corporate spread not explained by modeled expected defaults; it is a model-dependent measure of credit risk appetite.","references":["https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/ebp_csv.csv"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Supports the primary descriptive assessment without new ordinal thresholds, independent confirmations, or additional coverage votes."],"metric_id":"us_gz_corporate_spread","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"110d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"corporate_spread_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.","claim":"The EBP is the part of the GZ corporate spread not explained by modeled expected defaults; it is a model-dependent measure of credit risk appetite.","references":["https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/ebp_csv.csv"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Supports the primary descriptive assessment without new ordinal thresholds, independent confirmations, or additional coverage votes."],"metric_id":"us_excess_bond_premium","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"110d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"excess_bond_premium_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"10.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source context; the complete assessment and these supplementary growth/capacity interpretations are not established as calibrated crisis forecasts.","claim":"BIS estimates interest and amortisation payments as a percentage of sector income. 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Preserve preliminary and revised source footnotes with each vintage.","The primary assessment compares employment levels across three complete calendar months. Positive or negative change is descriptive evidence, not a calibrated recession probability.","No missing month is interpolated. FIRST_RETRIEVAL governs availability of the current revised API window; annual observations are excluded.","Payroll employment and CPS unemployment describe related labor conditions; they do not establish two independent confirmations."],"metric_id":"us_nonfarm_payrolls","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"75d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"nonfarm_payrolls_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.","claim":"A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","references":["https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/data/fsi.csv"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Supports the primary descriptive assessment without new ordinal thresholds, independent confirmations, or additional coverage votes."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_credit_contribution","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"10d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"ofr_credit_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.","claim":"A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","references":["https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/data/fsi.csv"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Supports the primary descriptive assessment without new ordinal thresholds, independent confirmations, or additional coverage votes."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_equity_contribution","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"10d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"ofr_equity_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"6.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Original OFR methodology; descriptive context without ERO severity thresholds.","claim":"The published index describes global financial market stress relative to its historical average. It does not forecast bubble bursts.","references":["https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/","https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/2017/10/25/the-ofr-financial-stability-index/"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Context has no score, breadth, coverage, risk bound, or situation influence.","Low measured stress does not imply low bubble vulnerability."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_financial_stress","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"10d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"ofr_financial_stress_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.","claim":"A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","references":["https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/data/fsi.csv"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Supports the primary descriptive assessment without new ordinal thresholds, independent confirmations, or additional coverage votes."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_funding_contribution","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"10d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"ofr_funding_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.","claim":"A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","references":["https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/data/fsi.csv"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Supports the primary descriptive assessment without new ordinal thresholds, independent confirmations, or additional coverage votes."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_safe_assets_contribution","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"10d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"ofr_safe_assets_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.","claim":"A contribution to the published OFR global financial stress index, in index points, not a separately standardized stress index.","references":["https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/data/fsi.csv"],"validation_maturity":"RESEARCH_INFORMED"},"lifecycle":{"definition_approval":"approved","implementation_verification":"specification_only","retirement_status":"active"},"limitations":["Supports the primary descriptive assessment without new ordinal thresholds, independent confirmations, or additional coverage votes."],"metric_id":"us_ofr_volatility_contribution","persistence":{"deescalate_periods":1,"escalate_periods":1,"exit_hysteresis_score":0,"max_age_between_confirmations":"10d","unknown_policy":"degrade"},"schema_version":"2.0.0","severity":{"anchors":[],"direction":"none"},"signal_id":"ofr_volatility_context_signal","velocity_rules":[]},{"definition_version":"10.0.0","evidence":{"calibration_lineage":"Published official-source context; the complete assessment and these supplementary growth/capacity interpretations are not established as calibrated crisis forecasts.","claim":"BEA published real level in millions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates; it is not nominal income or a monthly cash total. 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An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-09-05","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":33,"target_period_end":"2026-08-08","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"count","value":"1796000"},{"available_at":"2026-09-08T07:53:58.136854Z","definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence_sha256":"ad8fd5213405324eebfd40c68da72c5188a0f5e1d4529a04a4e33fc0b7206f50","input_series_ids":["us_dol_initial_claims_sa"],"metric_id":"us_dol_initial_claims_sa","period":"2026-08-08","quality_status":"STALE","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-08-08","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"weekly","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":14,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-08T07:53:58.136854Z","latest_period_end":"2026-08-08","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-08T07:53:58.136854Z","observation_age_days":33,"series_id":"us_dol_initial_claims_sa","source_frequency":"weekly","source_status":"STALE","stale_after_days":28,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-09-05","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":33,"target_period_end":"2026-08-08","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"count","value":"212000"},{"available_at":"2026-09-08T08:34:36.569031Z","definition_version":"10.0.0","evidence_sha256":"7928262746ae75801cdee7ae8329f59510dc129d8fb59637e6d33805792b536f","input_series_ids":["us_dol_release_continuing_claims_sa"],"metric_id":"us_dol_release_continuing_claims_sa","period":"2026-08-22","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-08-22","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"weekly","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":21,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-08T08:34:36.569031Z","latest_period_end":"2026-08-22","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-08T08:34:36.569031Z","observation_age_days":19,"series_id":"us_dol_release_continuing_claims_sa","source_frequency":"weekly","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":35,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-09-05","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":19,"target_period_end":"2026-08-22","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"count","value":"1779000"},{"available_at":"2026-09-08T08:34:36.569031Z","definition_version":"10.0.0","evidence_sha256":"c4a1d9bdef161ff14f67ea6901a9b114597c6838560f923c4011315a47b72d81","input_series_ids":["us_dol_release_initial_claims_sa"],"metric_id":"us_dol_release_initial_claims_sa","period":"2026-08-29","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-08-29","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"weekly","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":14,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-08T08:34:36.569031Z","latest_period_end":"2026-08-29","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-08T08:34:36.569031Z","observation_age_days":12,"series_id":"us_dol_release_initial_claims_sa","source_frequency":"weekly","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":28,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-09-05","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":12,"target_period_end":"2026-08-29","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"count","value":"206000"},{"available_at":"2026-09-08T07:53:56.405652Z","definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence_sha256":"d315c7bd0375e0c83b62d4d977bf2624d3609104a7ae9ded2027abaf4b272f2d","input_series_ids":["us_excess_bond_premium"],"metric_id":"us_excess_bond_premium","period":"2026-07-31","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-07-31","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"monthly","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":75,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-08T07:53:56.405652Z","latest_period_end":"2026-07-31","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-08T07:53:56.405652Z","observation_age_days":41,"series_id":"us_excess_bond_premium","source_frequency":"monthly","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":110,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-08-31","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":41,"target_period_end":"2026-07-31","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"percentage_points","value":"-0.319"},{"available_at":"2026-09-08T07:53:56.405652Z","definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence_sha256":"f0f4a9b037ba039c08244f08b54592196169776c47537e159fb31b7cda312f4c","input_series_ids":["us_gz_corporate_spread"],"metric_id":"us_gz_corporate_spread","period":"2026-07-31","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-07-31","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"monthly","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":75,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-08T07:53:56.405652Z","latest_period_end":"2026-07-31","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-08T07:53:56.405652Z","observation_age_days":41,"series_id":"us_gz_corporate_spread","source_frequency":"monthly","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":110,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. 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An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-06-30","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":253,"target_period_end":"2025-12-31","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"percent","value":"8"},{"available_at":null,"definition_version":"2.0.0","evidence_sha256":"2ac7863b9731abb43cabc74a66e8d23788ae4ad36db4170f7e16fd0bfaee674d","input_series_ids":["us_initial_claims"],"metric_id":"us_initial_claims_acceleration","period":"2026-09-06","quality_status":"INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY","timing":{"calculation_status":"INSUFFICIENT_HISTORY","evaluation_frequency":"weekly","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":10,"latest_available_at":null,"latest_period_end":null,"latest_retrieved_at":null,"observation_age_days":null,"series_id":"us_initial_claims","source_frequency":"weekly","source_status":"NO_OBSERVATIONS","stale_after_days":24,"target_period_status":"NOT_OBSERVED"}],"policy_id":"exact_completed_period_v1","release_policy_note":"The required completed period is withheld until its evidence is retrieved. The latest observation is shown with its actual period and is not substituted for missing target evidence. Source status uses configured economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; it does not establish a late release or provider outage.","target_period_age_days":4,"target_period_end":"2026-09-06","withheld_reason":"TARGET_PERIOD_NOT_OBSERVED"},"unit":null,"value":null},{"available_at":"2026-09-05T23:12:39.943111Z","definition_version":"8.0.0","evidence_sha256":"bea06069b07c58fc0534ae8a1fba7809e07741b2c5c661da16f0cc0449fa1a11","input_series_ids":["us_nonfarm_payrolls"],"metric_id":"us_nonfarm_payrolls","period":"2026-08-31","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-08-31","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"monthly","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":45,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-05T23:12:39.943111Z","latest_period_end":"2026-08-31","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-05T23:12:39.943111Z","observation_age_days":10,"series_id":"us_nonfarm_payrolls","source_frequency":"monthly","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":75,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":false,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-08-31","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":10,"target_period_end":"2026-08-31","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"thousand_jobs","value":"159075"},{"available_at":"2026-09-05T23:12:40.284151Z","definition_version":"8.0.0","evidence_sha256":"43b74d8677d9e4195eb24cb71f8254f29d138a6263db55b11725b901c3f4c698","input_series_ids":["us_nonfinancial_corporate_equity_net_worth"],"metric_id":"us_nonfinancial_corporate_equity_net_worth","period":"2026-03-31","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-03-31","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"quarterly","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":175,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-05T23:12:40.284151Z","latest_period_end":"2026-03-31","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-05T23:12:40.284151Z","observation_age_days":163,"series_id":"us_nonfinancial_corporate_equity_net_worth","source_frequency":"quarterly","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":210,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-06-30","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":163,"target_period_end":"2026-03-31","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"percent","value":"224.94"},{"available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence_sha256":"caa66e32886cc67a61d5db20b712a79d306e2ccfd6c354bb8c73c1a911af0eed","input_series_ids":["us_ofr_credit_contribution"],"metric_id":"us_ofr_credit_contribution","period":"2026-09-07","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-09-07","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"daily","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":5,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","latest_period_end":"2026-09-07","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","observation_age_days":3,"series_id":"us_ofr_credit_contribution","source_frequency":"daily","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":10,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. 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An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-09-09","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":3,"target_period_end":"2026-09-07","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"index_points","value":"-0.599"},{"available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","definition_version":"6.0.0","evidence_sha256":"d1b0302780afd11394f362616a5f82bb8122ec5715c7cc6535112b520721ad14","input_series_ids":["us_ofr_financial_stress"],"metric_id":"us_ofr_financial_stress","period":"2026-09-07","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-09-07","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"daily","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":5,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","latest_period_end":"2026-09-07","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","observation_age_days":3,"series_id":"us_ofr_financial_stress","source_frequency":"daily","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":10,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-09-09","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":3,"target_period_end":"2026-09-07","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"index_points","value":"-2.874"},{"available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence_sha256":"6a910cd7ff3f707a5709fee42a29e988a7f55d2f5f338a8cc3c467cd92b3bac4","input_series_ids":["us_ofr_funding_contribution"],"metric_id":"us_ofr_funding_contribution","period":"2026-09-07","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-09-07","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"daily","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":5,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","latest_period_end":"2026-09-07","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","observation_age_days":3,"series_id":"us_ofr_funding_contribution","source_frequency":"daily","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":10,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-09-09","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":3,"target_period_end":"2026-09-07","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"index_points","value":"-0.141"},{"available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence_sha256":"bd762572ce7ffd4c4fd8dc15417b19f839b8c04d51e4a3575c4919a7b32ac15b","input_series_ids":["us_ofr_safe_assets_contribution"],"metric_id":"us_ofr_safe_assets_contribution","period":"2026-09-07","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-09-07","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"daily","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":5,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","latest_period_end":"2026-09-07","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","observation_age_days":3,"series_id":"us_ofr_safe_assets_contribution","source_frequency":"daily","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":10,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.","requested_period_end":"2026-09-09","selection_status":"LAST_AVAILABLE_PERIOD","target_period_age_days":3,"target_period_end":"2026-09-07","withheld_reason":null},"unit":"index_points","value":"-0.289"},{"available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","definition_version":"9.0.0","evidence_sha256":"733db993560ddee0a79671b63f30dff8c72a28624926c3d8b3979ab3929b150e","input_series_ids":["us_ofr_volatility_contribution"],"metric_id":"us_ofr_volatility_contribution","period":"2026-09-07","quality_status":"VALID","timing":{"actual_period_end":"2026-09-07","calculation_status":"WINDOW_AVAILABLE","evaluation_frequency":"daily","inputs":[{"availability_basis":"FIRST_RETRIEVAL","late_after_days":5,"latest_available_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","latest_period_end":"2026-09-07","latest_retrieved_at":"2026-09-09T17:34:27.871159Z","observation_age_days":3,"series_id":"us_ofr_volatility_contribution","source_frequency":"daily","source_status":"CURRENT","stale_after_days":10,"target_period_status":"NOT_REQUIRED"}],"is_carried_forward":true,"policy_id":"latest_available_period_v1","release_policy_note":"Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. 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An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. 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product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/terms_of_use.html"},{"code":"BLS_DATA_ATTRIBUTION","text":"Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Data access dates are supplied as retrieved_at in canonical observations.","url":"https://www.bls.gov/developers/termsOfService.htm"},{"code":"BIS_DATA_ATTRIBUTION","text":"Source: BIS debt service ratio statistics. Model-based estimates. ECO I's calculations and interpretation are its own; BIS does not endorse them. BIS data are provided free of charge with attribution.","url":"https://www.bis.org/about/legal/permitted-use-statistics"}],"overall_assessment":{"as_of":"2026-09-10T00:35:39Z","core_channels_available":4,"core_channels_total":4,"counterevidence":["OFR's global financial stress index is not above its historical average; it does not currently confirm an acute market-stress episode.","Neither business-size category reports significant net tightening in the latest SLOOS. 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Board's nonfinancial corporate equity-to-net-worth measure is at the 97.03th percentile of its retained history since 1980. High historical valuation is vulnerability, not proof of a bubble or its timing."],"headline":"Valuation vulnerability is high, while financial stress is subdued and payrolls are 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caution","limitations":["This is an explicit ERO interpretation policy, not a statistically calibrated crash or recession forecast.","Daily, monthly and quarterly evidence retains its actual source period. Latest available is not real-time market pricing.","OFR is global financial stress; Z.1 covers broad nonfinancial corporations, including private firms and inward FDI. Neither isolates AI or listed U.S. equities.","Bank runs, private leverage, market concentration and AI earnings expectations are not comprehensively measured.","Historical comparisons use retained current revisions, not reconstructed historical real-time information. A positive yield curve does not erase earlier inversion risk.","Weekly claims, EBP changes and OFR components are descriptive supplements. Their incremental crisis-forecast performance is not established; they do not add independent votes or calibrated event probabilities to the four-channel policy.","Income/spending growth and BIS debt-service ratios describe economic demand and payment capacity. The income measure excludes transfer receipts; the household ratio includes nonprofit institutions serving households. Quarterly BIS estimates arrive with a substantial delay. The history uses revisions available at this snapshot, not inferred original release vintages. These additions supply no validated crisis thresholds, independent alarm votes or calibrated event probabilities.","Claims comparisons use published values retained from several releases; older weeks may not include every later seasonal revision."],"method_id":"ero_public_risk_synthesis","method_version":"3.0.0","policy_sha256":"0090eacc1eab3550b5a21ffd69f503bff9fdf3efa15b3aceb06cf9458eea67f2","risk_state":"VALUATION_CAUTION","schema_version":"1.0.0","status":"PARTIAL","summary":"The Board's nonfinancial corporate equity-to-net-worth measure is at the 97.03th percentile of its retained history since 1980. High historical valuation is vulnerability, not proof of a bubble or its timing. OFR's global financial stress index is not above its historical average; it does not currently confirm an acute market-stress episode. The conclusion is qualified by missing evidence; see the unavailable checks below. On the latest four-week comparisons, initial claims rose and continuing claims fell. The corporate-credit premium fell over three months through 2026-07-31, consistent with stronger risk appetite. OFR financial stress is down 0.01 index points over the latest 20 published observations through 2026-09-07. Real income excluding transfers and consumer spending both expanded over three months through 2026-07-31, supporting household demand in that period. Over twelve months, real income excluding transfers was down 0.38% and consumer spending was up 2.14%; the recent and annual directions differ. Household debt service was up 0.1 percentage points of income from a year earlier through 2025-12-31. Corporate debt service was down 1.1 percentage points of income from a year earlier through 2025-12-31. Debt-service evidence describes delayed capacity, not current market conditions.","supplementary_evidence":{"corporate_credit":{"derived_keys":["ebp_level","gz_spread_level","ebp_change_3_months"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["excess_bond_premium","corporate_spread"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"The Excess Bond Premium is -0.32 percentage points for 2026-07-31, down 0.12 percentage points over three months. The GZ corporate spread is 0.84 percentage points for 2026-07-31. A rising EBP is consistent with weaker corporate-bond risk appetite. Its level and change do not supply a crash probability."},"debt_service_capacity":{"derived_keys":["household_debt_service_level","household_debt_service_change_4_quarters","household_debt_service_history_percentile","corporate_debt_service_level","corporate_debt_service_change_4_quarters","corporate_debt_service_history_percentile"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["household_debt_service","corporate_debt_service"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"Households including nonprofit institutions serving households through 2025-12-31: estimated debt service was 8% of income, up 0.1 percentage points from a year earlier, with an own-history percentile rank of 18.52 across 108 quarters since 1999-Q1. Nonfinancial corporations through 2025-12-31: estimated debt service was 37.5% of income, down 1.1 percentage points from a year earlier, with an own-history percentile rank of 5.56 across 108 quarters since 1999-Q1. BIS ratios are model estimates with smoothed income and assumed loan maturities, published with a substantial quarterly delay. Rising ratios mean more income committed to debt payments in the reported period. Sector levels are not directly comparable; each percentile describes only that sector's history, not a crisis threshold or probability."},"income_and_spending":{"derived_keys":["real_income_ex_transfers_change_3_months_annualized_percent","real_income_ex_transfers_change_12_months_percent","real_consumption_change_3_months_annualized_percent","real_consumption_change_12_months_percent"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["real_income_ex_transfers","real_consumption"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"Real personal income excluding transfers through 2026-07-31: up 2.26% at an annualized rate over three months, down 0.38% over twelve months. Real consumer spending through 2026-07-31: up 3.33% at an annualized rate over three months, up 2.14% over twelve months. These are inflation-adjusted, seasonally adjusted flows. Three-month annualization describes the pace if repeated for a year; it is not a forecast. Income excludes transfer receipts, so comparing these levels cannot establish a household saving rate."},"ofr_components":{"derived_keys":["ofr_headline_change_20_observations","ofr_credit_contribution","ofr_credit_change_20_observations","ofr_equity_contribution","ofr_equity_change_20_observations","ofr_safe_assets_contribution","ofr_safe_assets_change_20_observations","ofr_funding_contribution","ofr_funding_change_20_observations","ofr_volatility_contribution","ofr_volatility_change_20_observations","ofr_component_residual","ofr_component_change_residual"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["financial_stress","ofr_credit","ofr_equity","ofr_safe_assets","ofr_funding","ofr_volatility"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"OFR stress is down 0.01 index points over 20 published observations (2026-08-10 to 2026-09-07). Safe assets contributed the largest upward change (0.03 index points). All category contributions are at or below zero on 2026-09-07. The published category sum differs from the headline; the residual is retained explicitly. Categories explain one composite index and are not independent warning signals."},"weekly_claims":{"derived_keys":["initial_claims_average_4_weeks","initial_claims_change_4_weeks_percent","initial_claims_change_52_weeks_percent","continuing_claims_average_4_weeks","continuing_claims_change_4_weeks_percent","continuing_claims_change_52_weeks_percent"],"reason_codes":[],"roles":["initial_claims","continuing_claims"],"status":"AVAILABLE","summary":"Initial claims averaged 207250 over four weeks ending 2026-08-29, up 4.15% from 4 weeks earlier, down 10.09% from 52 weeks earlier. Continuing claims averaged 1781750 over four weeks ending 2026-08-22, down 0.5% from 4 weeks earlier, down 8.37% from 52 weeks earlier. Both measures describe insured unemployment and share the labor channel with payrolls and unemployment; they are not separate crisis confirmations."}},"unknowns":["The exact Sahm-style recession check is unavailable because its full monthly lookback is not valid. Missing CPS months are not skipped or filled."],"watch_next":["A rise in OFR stress alongside significant SLOOS tightening would strengthen the financial-risk diagnosis.","A negative three-month payroll change or a valid Sahm-style warning would strengthen the employment-risk diagnosis.","High valuations with emerging financial or labor stress would be more concerning than high valuations alone."]},"sharing":{"message":"The overall assessment is not published because sharing permission is absent for one or more inputs. Permitted indicators remain available.","mode":"shareable","required_chart_surface":"public_chart","required_input_surface":"public_api","restriction_code":"TRANSITIVE_SHARING_PERMISSION_ABSENT","situation_published":false},"situation":null,"snapshot":{"as_of":"2026-09-10T00:35:39Z","content_sha256":"f004bde27e969e3c81739b5588813c41b24e66d3926e28a0455a2692f9797820","current":false,"generated_at":"2026-09-10T00:47:33Z","profile_id":"us_macro_financial","profile_version":"10.0.0","snapshot_id":"ero_us_macro_financial_20260910T003539Z_f004bde27e96"}}