{"api_version":"v1","report":{"assessment_status":"PARTIAL","bubble_status":"NOT_ESTABLISHED","crash_date":null,"crash_probability":null,"cycle_phase":"NOT_FORMALLY_CLASSIFIED","disclaimer":"THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Experimental information only; verify independently. Sources: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, US Treasury and Office of Financial Research. Independent ECO I analysis; no agency endorsement. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.","facts":{"assessment":{"core_channels_available":4,"core_channels_total":4,"headline":"Valuation vulnerability is high, while financial stress is subdued and payrolls are growing","method_version":"3.0.0","policy_sha256":"0090eacc1eab3550b5a21ffd69f503bff9fdf3efa15b3aceb06cf9458eea67f2","risk_state":"VALUATION_CAUTION","status":"PARTIAL","unknowns":["The exact Sahm-style recession check is unavailable because its full monthly lookback is not valid. 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information, not financial advice. No calibrated crash probability, crash date, bubble-burst countdown or formal business-cycle phase is established. High valuation is vulnerability, not proof of a bubble or its timing. A lack of measured stress is not a guarantee of safety. Indicators overlap; OFR components are parts of one index, not independent votes. Latest published data has daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly delays. Historical evaluation uses revised data and few recession episodes; it does not validate crash forecasts."},"scope":{"text":"United States macroeconomic evidence and OFR global financial stress only. No comprehensive diagnosis of other major economies, individual assets, AI stocks, geopolitical events or intraday markets. BIS debt-service data is excluded from the external model because Contributor training permission is not established."},"source_attribution":{"text":"Sources: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, US Treasury and Office of Financial Research. Independent ECO I analysis; no agency endorsement. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov."},"weekly_comparison":{"changes":[],"previous_week":"2026-09-08","status":"COMPARABLE_SAVED_WEEKS"}},"generated_at":"2026-09-09T04:41:27.022395Z","limitations":"Experimental information, not financial advice. No calibrated crash probability, crash date, bubble-burst countdown or formal business-cycle phase is established. High valuation is vulnerability, not proof of a bubble or its timing. A lack of measured stress is not a guarantee of safety. Indicators overlap; OFR components are parts of one index, not independent votes. Latest published data has daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly delays. Historical evaluation uses revised data and few recession episodes; it does not validate crash forecasts.","lines":[{"evidence_ids":["assessment"],"text":"Valuation vulnerability is high, while financial stress is subdued and payrolls are growing; this is a partial experimental assessment.","topic":"overall_risk"},{"evidence_ids":["derived.payroll_change","derived.real_consumption_change_3_months_annualized_percent","limitations"],"text":"Payrolls were increasing over three months through 2026-08-31 and real spending was growing over three months through 2026-07-31; these differently dated signals do not establish a formal cycle phase.","topic":"cycle_evidence"},{"evidence_ids":["derived.valuation_percentile","limitations"],"text":"The equity-valuation measure had a historical percentile rank of approximately 97.03 through 2026-03-31; this alone cannot establish a bubble, its bursting or a crash timetable.","topic":"valuation"},{"evidence_ids":["input.financial_stress","limitations"],"text":"OFR financial stress was below its historical average at -2.79 index points through 2026-09-04; the index cannot guarantee safety or date a crash.","topic":"financial_stress"},{"evidence_ids":["derived.ebp_level","limitations"],"text":"The Fed research Excess Bond Premium was -0.32 percentage points through 2026-07-31; it measures a corporate-credit risk-premium component, not an ECO I recession or crash probability.","topic":"credit"},{"evidence_ids":["derived.continuing_claims_change_4_weeks_percent","derived.continuing_claims_change_52_weeks_percent"],"text":"The four-week average of continuing claims fell by 0.5% versus four weeks earlier and fell by 8.37% versus a year earlier through 2026-08-22; the two horizons can give different signals.","topic":"labor"},{"evidence_ids":["derived.real_consumption_change_3_months_annualized_percent","derived.real_income_ex_transfers_change_3_months_annualized_percent"],"text":"The annualized three-month change in real income excluding transfers was 2.26% through 2026-07-31, versus 3.33% for real spending through 2026-07-31; annualized rates are not the actual three-month percentage changes.","topic":"income_and_spending"},{"evidence_ids":["assessment","limitations","weekly_comparison"],"text":"Numerical values, periods, units and quality match the previous saved report; unchanged published evidence does not prove that underlying economic conditions have stood still.","topic":"weekly_change"},{"evidence_ids":["scope"],"text":"Coverage is United States macroeconomic evidence and OFR global financial stress; these data cannot establish the condition of every major economy, individual stock or intraday market.","topic":"coverage"},{"evidence_ids":["input.sahm","limitations"],"text":"The exact Sahm-style unemployment check is unavailable in this evidence; an unavailable check is uncertainty, not evidence that recession risk is absent.","topic":"uncertainty"}],"model":"muse-spark-1.2-contributor","packet_sha256":"bc75a64cd911a5e04a5cb7b326215eb1db9e01d8455a3db71d3d0ef007500b96","prior_report_sha256":"db03cd17b25f1be76e2a2ecffad59d353d60ff8c74e89fdcd848ed43190b1553","report_date":"2026-09-09","report_id":"2026-09-09-r2","report_kind":"UPDATE","revises_report_id":"2026-09-08","risk_state":"VALUATION_CAUTION","schema_version":"1.1.0","second_opinion":{"headline":"Expensive market stays calm while jobs and spending keep growing","paragraphs":[{"angle":"judgment","evidence_ids":["assessment","derived.valuation_percentile","input.financial_stress"],"kind":"INTERPRETATION","text":"The main risk right now is vulnerability to a repricing, not current distress. Valuations sit near the top of its long history while measured financial stress remains low, so a shock could hurt more than usual, even though nothing is breaking today."},{"angle":"main_vulnerability","evidence_ids":["derived.valuation_percentile","limitations"],"kind":"INTERPRETATION","text":"The core vulnerability is how expensive equities look on this long-run gauge. An extreme percentile does not prove a bubble or time a fall, but it means expectations are high and there is less cushion if earnings, rates or confidence disappoint."},{"angle":"economy","evidence_ids":["derived.payroll_change","derived.real_consumption_change_3_months_annualized_percent","derived.real_income_ex_transfers_change_3_months_annualized_percent"],"kind":"INTERPRETATION","text":"Activity is still expanding on the latest differently dated readings. Payrolls grew over three months and real spending grew faster than real income over the recent three-month window, suggesting households kept buying even as income growth was more modest."},{"angle":"supports","evidence_ids":["derived.real_consumption_change_12_months_percent","derived.real_income_ex_transfers_change_12_months_percent","input.financial_stress"],"kind":"INTERPRETATION","text":"Demand is holding up for now. Year-over-year spending was up while income excluding transfers was softer, with subdued financial stress and easy credit pricing helping households and firms to keep transacting rather than pulling back."},{"angle":"bubble_evidence","evidence_ids":["derived.ebp_level","derived.valuation_percentile","input.financial_stress","limitations"],"kind":"INTERPRETATION","text":"There is no evidence in this data that a bubble is actually breaking. Expensive valuations flag fragility, but stress gauges and the credit risk premium remain calm, and a high price alone cannot confirm a bubble exists or that a decline has started."},{"angle":"downside_scenario","evidence_ids":["assessment","derived.payroll_change","derived.valuation_percentile","input.financial_stress"],"kind":"SCENARIO","text":"If a negative surprise hit confidence when prices are stretched, it could lift stress, tighten funding and credit, then weaken hiring and spending, which would in turn pressure earnings and asset prices further in a feedback loop."},{"angle":"warning_signs","evidence_ids":["derived.ofr_headline_change_20_observations","derived.payroll_change","input.bank_small","input.financial_stress","input.sahm"],"kind":"SCENARIO","text":"My judgment would change if calm gives way to strain. If financial stress rose together with tighter bank lending, or if payrolls turned negative on a three-month view or a valid Sahm-style warning appeared, vulnerability would matter more imminently."},{"angle":"recent_change","evidence_ids":["assessment","limitations"],"kind":"INTERPRETATION","text":"The latest week shows no change on published values versus the prior saved report, so the picture is steady rather than newly worsening or improving. Unchanged prints do not prove the economy stood still, only that new data have not yet arrived."},{"angle":"alternative_outcome","evidence_ids":["derived.ebp_level","derived.payroll_change","derived.real_consumption_change_3_months_annualized_percent","input.financial_stress"],"kind":"SCENARIO","text":"Alternatively, if job gains and spending stay solid while stress stays subdued and credit premiums remain low, high valuations could persist without a disorderly adjustment, with growth gradually validating prices rather than a sharp reset."},{"angle":"blind_spot","evidence_ids":["input.sahm","limitations","scope"],"kind":"INTERPRETATION","text":"The biggest blind spot is what this limited lens cannot see. The Sahm-style check is unavailable, data arrive with lags, and coverage is only US macro plus one stress index, so other risks could build unseen and past patterns do not validate forecasts."}]},"snapshot":{"as_of":"2026-09-09T00:08:06Z","content_sha256":"0dc280e0f909681f539d41cd8cb415abc2ee90a31ef0ee5721b10932a6861a81","generated_at":"2026-09-09T00:08:10Z","profile_id":"us_macro_financial","profile_version":"10.0.0","snapshot_id":"ero_us_macro_financial_20260909T000806Z_0dc280e0f909"},"usage":{"cached_tokens":0,"completion_tokens":3527,"prompt_tokens":10469,"reasoning_tokens":1261,"total_tokens":13996},"week_ending":null}}