U.S. ECONOMY & MARKETS27 Oct 2026 · 00:36 UTC
IndicatorsCn credit to gdp gap

INDICATOR DETAIL

Credit-to-GDP gap (China)

-5.1percentage_points_of_gdp
ValidPeriod ending 31 Mar 2026Available 22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC

Credit-to-GDP gap (China)

History

122 readings.

All retained dates

Dates refer to the economic period ending and apply to all charts below. Leave a date blank for an open range.

Published metric history, percentage_points_of_gdp122 observed values from 1995-12-31 to 2026-03-31. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query.0201995-12-31: -5.7 percentage_points_of_gdp1996-03-31: -6.5 percentage_points_of_gdp1996-06-30: -4.3 percentage_points_of_gdp1996-09-30: -4.7 percentage_points_of_gdp1996-12-31: -2.5 percentage_points_of_gdp1997-03-31: 0.1 percentage_points_of_gdp1997-06-30: 0.2 percentage_points_of_gdp1997-09-30: 0.9 percentage_points_of_gdp1997-12-31: 3.2 percentage_points_of_gdp1998-03-31: 2.1 percentage_points_of_gdp1998-06-30: 3.1 percentage_points_of_gdp1998-09-30: 5.5 percentage_points_of_gdp1998-12-31: 6.8 percentage_points_of_gdp1999-03-31: 6.1 percentage_points_of_gdp1999-06-30: 6.6 percentage_points_of_gdp1999-09-30: 7.1 percentage_points_of_gdp1999-12-31: 16.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2000-03-31: 14.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2000-06-30: 10.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2000-09-30: 10 percentage_points_of_gdp2000-12-31: 11.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2001-03-31: 1.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2001-06-30: 2.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2001-09-30: 1.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2001-12-31: 1.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2002-03-31: 8.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2002-06-30: 9.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2002-09-30: 10.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2002-12-31: 10.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2003-03-31: 11.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2003-06-30: 15.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2003-09-30: 15.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2003-12-31: 12.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2004-03-31: 13.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2004-06-30: 9.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2004-09-30: 5.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2004-12-31: 3.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2005-03-31: 1.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2005-06-30: -2.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2005-09-30: -3.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2005-12-31: -5.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2006-03-31: -2.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2006-06-30: -2.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2006-09-30: -4.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2006-12-31: -6.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2007-03-31: -5.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2007-06-30: -5.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2007-09-30: -6.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2007-12-31: -9.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2008-03-31: -8.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2008-06-30: -9.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2008-09-30: -10.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2008-12-31: -10.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-03-31: 0.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-06-30: 8.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-09-30: 11.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-12-31: 11.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-03-31: 13.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-06-30: 13.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-09-30: 12.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-12-31: 10.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-03-31: 9.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-06-30: 8.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-09-30: 5.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-12-31: 5.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-03-31: 7.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-06-30: 9 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-09-30: 10.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-12-31: 12.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-03-31: 16.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-06-30: 17.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-09-30: 18.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-12-31: 17.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-03-31: 19.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-06-30: 20.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-09-30: 18.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-12-31: 18.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-03-31: 20.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-06-30: 21 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-09-30: 21.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-12-31: 23.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-03-31: 25.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-06-30: 21.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-09-30: 18.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-12-31: 15.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-03-31: 14.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-06-30: 10 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-09-30: 6.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-12-31: 2.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-03-31: 1.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-06-30: -2 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-09-30: -4.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-12-31: -7.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-03-31: -5.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-06-30: -6.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-09-30: -7.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-12-31: -8.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-03-31: -0.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-06-30: 2.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-09-30: 1.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-12-31: -1.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-03-31: -5 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-06-30: -8.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-09-30: -11.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-12-31: -14.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-03-31: -12.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-06-30: -11.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-09-30: -11.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-12-31: -12.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-03-31: -7 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-06-30: -7.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-09-30: -7.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-12-31: -9.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-03-31: -5 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-06-30: -5.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-09-30: -5.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-12-31: -7.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-03-31: -4.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-06-30: -5.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-09-30: -6.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-12-31: -7.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2026-03-31: -5.1 percentage_points_of_gdp31 Dec 199514 Feb 201131 Mar 2026

Showing periods 1–122 of 122 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.

Uses the data available in this saved assessment; later revisions may change historical values. This reconstructed chart does not show what was known on each historical date. Missing source periods break the line; unavailable metric values are omitted. Quality is evaluated at the assessment date.

Exact values · final 12 periods in this chart window
Exact plotted metric readings
Economic periodValueUnitQuality
30 Jun 2023-7.5percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Sep 2023-7.7percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Dec 2023-9.3percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Mar 2024-5percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Jun 2024-5.6percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Sep 2024-5.9percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Dec 2024-7.6percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Mar 2025-4.4percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Jun 2025-5.3percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Sep 2025-6.4percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Dec 2025-7.7percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Mar 2026-5.1percentage_points_of_gdpValid
Method, sources and timing

Economic period & freshness

Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.

Source timing diagnostics
InputLatest source periodObservation ageAvailable to ECO ISource status
Cn credit to gdp gap31 Mar 2026210 days22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTCCurrent
THE PUBLISHED TRANSFORMOutput the latest original published value for its native economic period.

The credit-to-GDP ratio's deviation from its one-sided Hodrick-Prescott trend (smoothing 400,000), in percentage points of GDP. It is the Basel III guide for the countercyclical capital buffer. The trend is estimated from past data only and moves with it; a gap near the start of a series, or after a long boom or bust, is less reliable. Large negative gaps after deleveraging do not mean safety. Above 2 points marks the Basel III buffer guide and above 10 points the historical crisis zone; both are context here, not ECO I rules. Publication trails the quarter by about five to six months; availability is the first retrieval.

Definition 11.0.0 · cn_credit_to_gdp_gap
VALIDATION MATURITY

Research informed

Credit to the private non-financial sector and its gap to trend: the best-documented early indicator of financial crises (Basel III buffer guide; Greenwood, Hanson, Shleifer and Sorensen).

Published official-source context; the complete assessment and these supplementary growth/capacity interpretations are not established as calibrated crisis forecasts.

Canonical observations JSON ↗
Canonical source observations
Period endingSource valueUnitQualityAvailable to ECO I
30 Jun 2024-5.6406percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
30 Sep 2024-5.9445percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
31 Dec 2024-7.5782percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
31 Mar 2025-4.4329percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
30 Jun 2025-5.2967percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
30 Sep 2025-6.3859percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
31 Dec 2025-7.6883percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
31 Mar 2026-5.1412percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC

Original BIS credit statistics CSV · 4198abe9f9c9… ↗

Showing 1 of 1 retained source files. All retained source file hashes (JSON) ↗

Source: BIS total credit and credit-to-GDP gap statistics; no BIS endorsement. Free statistical reuse with attribution under BIS permitted-use terms. File hashes identify the exact retrieved bytes; these are not historical point-in-time vintages.

Chart source observations · 122 periods in this windowCanonical source observations, percentage_points_of_gdp122 observed values from 1995-12-31 to 2026-03-31. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query.0201995-12-31: -5.7443 percentage_points_of_gdp1996-03-31: -6.4822 percentage_points_of_gdp1996-06-30: -4.294 percentage_points_of_gdp1996-09-30: -4.7218 percentage_points_of_gdp1996-12-31: -2.4573 percentage_points_of_gdp1997-03-31: 0.1199 percentage_points_of_gdp1997-06-30: 0.1906 percentage_points_of_gdp1997-09-30: 0.9427 percentage_points_of_gdp1997-12-31: 3.1601 percentage_points_of_gdp1998-03-31: 2.1104 percentage_points_of_gdp1998-06-30: 3.0822 percentage_points_of_gdp1998-09-30: 5.5349 percentage_points_of_gdp1998-12-31: 6.7886 percentage_points_of_gdp1999-03-31: 6.0513 percentage_points_of_gdp1999-06-30: 6.5662 percentage_points_of_gdp1999-09-30: 7.1177 percentage_points_of_gdp1999-12-31: 16.2313 percentage_points_of_gdp2000-03-31: 14.5397 percentage_points_of_gdp2000-06-30: 10.0771 percentage_points_of_gdp2000-09-30: 9.9594 percentage_points_of_gdp2000-12-31: 11.2451 percentage_points_of_gdp2001-03-31: 1.3737 percentage_points_of_gdp2001-06-30: 2.2125 percentage_points_of_gdp2001-09-30: 1.2001 percentage_points_of_gdp2001-12-31: 1.2501 percentage_points_of_gdp2002-03-31: 8.4021 percentage_points_of_gdp2002-06-30: 9.5267 percentage_points_of_gdp2002-09-30: 10.0816 percentage_points_of_gdp2002-12-31: 10.0883 percentage_points_of_gdp2003-03-31: 11.5868 percentage_points_of_gdp2003-06-30: 15.121 percentage_points_of_gdp2003-09-30: 15.4064 percentage_points_of_gdp2003-12-31: 12.4722 percentage_points_of_gdp2004-03-31: 13.7849 percentage_points_of_gdp2004-06-30: 9.0561 percentage_points_of_gdp2004-09-30: 5.8193 percentage_points_of_gdp2004-12-31: 3.5488 percentage_points_of_gdp2005-03-31: 1.4678 percentage_points_of_gdp2005-06-30: -2.1418 percentage_points_of_gdp2005-09-30: -3.4523 percentage_points_of_gdp2005-12-31: -5.4861 percentage_points_of_gdp2006-03-31: -2.826 percentage_points_of_gdp2006-06-30: -2.4606 percentage_points_of_gdp2006-09-30: -4.1713 percentage_points_of_gdp2006-12-31: -6.4128 percentage_points_of_gdp2007-03-31: -5.2127 percentage_points_of_gdp2007-06-30: -5.0584 percentage_points_of_gdp2007-09-30: -6.177 percentage_points_of_gdp2007-12-31: -9.1907 percentage_points_of_gdp2008-03-31: -8.8748 percentage_points_of_gdp2008-06-30: -9.7188 percentage_points_of_gdp2008-09-30: -10.2383 percentage_points_of_gdp2008-12-31: -10.6774 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-03-31: 0.8407 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-06-30: 8.7953 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-09-30: 11.7222 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-12-31: 11.936 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-03-31: 13.4271 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-06-30: 13.9428 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-09-30: 12.4458 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-12-31: 10.629 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-03-31: 9.6959 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-06-30: 8.3157 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-09-30: 5.8871 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-12-31: 5.8533 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-03-31: 7.7811 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-06-30: 9.0301 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-09-30: 10.9226 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-12-31: 12.1888 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-03-31: 16.2103 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-06-30: 17.3342 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-09-30: 18.2885 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-12-31: 17.1575 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-03-31: 19.3854 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-06-30: 20.4386 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-09-30: 18.866 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-12-31: 18.6313 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-03-31: 20.5133 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-06-30: 20.9644 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-09-30: 21.7982 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-12-31: 23.9171 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-03-31: 25.4573 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-06-30: 21.8366 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-09-30: 18.4173 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-12-31: 15.8846 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-03-31: 14.2925 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-06-30: 9.9689 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-09-30: 6.4677 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-12-31: 2.3882 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-03-31: 1.0963 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-06-30: -1.9684 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-09-30: -4.891 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-12-31: -7.5952 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-03-31: -5.5235 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-06-30: -6.8167 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-09-30: -7.6129 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-12-31: -8.7489 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-03-31: -0.5144 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-06-30: 2.3637 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-09-30: 1.8216 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-12-31: -1.7034 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-03-31: -5.0188 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-06-30: -8.5463 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-09-30: -11.2176 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-12-31: -14.6778 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-03-31: -12.2035 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-06-30: -11.0748 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-09-30: -11.2709 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-12-31: -12.1593 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-03-31: -7.0176 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-06-30: -7.4824 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-09-30: -7.6885 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-12-31: -9.3138 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-03-31: -4.9524 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-06-30: -5.6406 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-09-30: -5.9445 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-12-31: -7.5782 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-03-31: -4.4329 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-06-30: -5.2967 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-09-30: -6.3859 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-12-31: -7.6883 percentage_points_of_gdp2026-03-31: -5.1412 percentage_points_of_gdp31 Dec 199514 Feb 201131 Mar 2026

Showing periods 1–122 of 122 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.

Uses snapshot-selected vintages. The final eight exact values in this window are tabulated above. The pinned JSON query provides all matching observations and provenance; follow its cursor for further pages.

Snapshot identity
Snapshot
ero_us_macro_financial_20261027T003609Z_3476e48f61e8
Profile version
11.0.0
Generated
27 Oct 2026 · 00:38 UTC
Analytical content SHA-256
3476e48f61e89a392bf424594d533e4786040223a0d6bad7c1aa54e7ac1c3ce3

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Data access dates are supplied as retrieved_at in canonical observations. Latest retained BLS access: 03 Oct 2026 · 00:33 UTC. BLS source terms

Source: BIS debt service, credit and credit-gap statistics; debt service is model-based. ECO I's calculations and interpretation are its own; BIS does not endorse them. BIS statistical-use terms