THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE Experimental; data and analysis may be wrong or delayed, so do not rely on this site to make financial decisions. Full disclaimer U.S. ECONOMY & MARKETS 27 Oct 2026 · 00:36 UTC INDICATOR DETAIL
Excess Bond Premium -0.392 percentage points
Valid Period ending 30 Sep 2026 Available 07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC
Excess Bond Premium
Published metric history, percentage points 180 observed values from 2011-10-31 to 2026-09-30. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query. -1 0 1 2011-10-31: -0.073 percentage points 2011-11-30: 0.533 percentage points 2011-12-31: 0.311 percentage points 2012-01-31: 0.217 percentage points 2012-02-29: 0.094 percentage points 2012-03-31: -0.318 percentage points 2012-04-30: -0.132 percentage points 2012-05-31: -0.051 percentage points 2012-06-30: 0.201 percentage points 2012-07-31: 0.032 percentage points 2012-08-31: -0.175 percentage points 2012-09-30: -0.122 percentage points 2012-10-31: -0.153 percentage points 2012-11-30: -0.022 percentage points 2012-12-31: -0.139 percentage points 2013-01-31: -0.067 percentage points 2013-02-28: -0.002 percentage points 2013-03-31: -0.07 percentage points 2013-04-30: -0.095 percentage points 2013-05-31: -0.481 percentage points 2013-06-30: -0.348 percentage points 2013-07-31: 0.008 percentage points 2013-08-31: -0.109 percentage points 2013-09-30: -0.12 percentage points 2013-10-31: -0.019 percentage points 2013-11-30: 0.022 percentage points 2013-12-31: -0.134 percentage points 2014-01-31: -0.293 percentage points 2014-02-28: -0.188 percentage points 2014-03-31: -0.258 percentage points 2014-04-30: -0.341 percentage points 2014-05-31: -0.358 percentage points 2014-06-30: -0.293 percentage points 2014-07-31: -0.308 percentage points 2014-08-31: -0.303 percentage points 2014-09-30: -0.207 percentage points 2014-10-31: -0.207 percentage points 2014-11-30: 0.07 percentage points 2014-12-31: 0.089 percentage points 2015-01-31: -0.04 percentage points 2015-02-28: -0.291 percentage points 2015-03-31: -0.128 percentage points 2015-04-30: 0.013 percentage points 2015-05-31: 0.059 percentage points 2015-06-30: 0.157 percentage points 2015-07-31: 0.218 percentage points 2015-08-31: 0.408 percentage points 2015-09-30: 0.547 percentage points 2015-10-31: 0.434 percentage points 2015-11-30: 0.521 percentage points 2015-12-31: 0.691 percentage points 2016-01-31: 0.925 percentage points 2016-02-29: 0.957 percentage points 2016-03-31: 0.592 percentage points 2016-04-30: 0.246 percentage points 2016-05-31: 0.26 percentage points 2016-06-30: 0.065 percentage points 2016-07-31: 0.015 percentage points 2016-08-31: -0.009 percentage points 2016-09-30: -0.065 percentage points 2016-10-31: -0.063 percentage points 2016-11-30: -0.75 percentage points 2016-12-31: -0.232 percentage points 2017-01-31: -0.184 percentage points 2017-02-28: -0.17 percentage points 2017-03-31: -0.159 percentage points 2017-04-30: -0.106 percentage points 2017-05-31: -0.155 percentage points 2017-06-30: -0.111 percentage points 2017-07-31: -0.136 percentage points 2017-08-31: -0.067 percentage points 2017-09-30: -0.247 percentage points 2017-10-31: -0.201 percentage points 2017-11-30: -0.118 percentage points 2017-12-31: -0.184 percentage points 2018-01-31: -0.39 percentage points 2018-02-28: -0.231 percentage points 2018-03-31: -0.091 percentage points 2018-04-30: -0.273 percentage points 2018-05-31: -0.185 percentage points 2018-06-30: 0.04 percentage points 2018-07-31: -0.114 percentage points 2018-08-31: -0.083 percentage points 2018-09-30: -0.164 percentage points 2018-10-31: 0.017 percentage points 2018-11-30: 0.161 percentage points 2018-12-31: 0.36 percentage points 2019-01-31: 0.2 percentage points 2019-02-28: 0.091 percentage points 2019-03-31: -0.104 percentage points 2019-04-30: 0.019 percentage points 2019-05-31: 0 percentage points 2019-06-30: 0.029 percentage points 2019-07-31: -0.024 percentage points 2019-08-31: -0.145 percentage points 2019-09-30: -0.222 percentage points 2019-10-31: -0.216 percentage points 2019-11-30: -0.158 percentage points 2019-12-31: -0.269 percentage points 2020-01-31: -0.236 percentage points 2020-02-29: -0.151 percentage points 2020-03-31: 1.188 percentage points 2020-04-30: 0.655 percentage points 2020-05-31: 0.413 percentage points 2020-06-30: 0.055 percentage points 2020-07-31: -0.156 percentage points 2020-08-31: -0.282 percentage points 2020-09-30: 0.007 percentage points 2020-10-31: -0.203 percentage points 2020-11-30: -0.46 percentage points 2020-12-31: -0.49 percentage points 2021-01-31: -0.646 percentage points 2021-02-28: -0.947 percentage points 2021-03-31: -0.738 percentage points 2021-04-30: -0.478 percentage points 2021-05-31: -0.414 percentage points 2021-06-30: -0.579 percentage points 2021-07-31: -0.552 percentage points 2021-08-31: -0.473 percentage points 2021-09-30: -0.643 percentage points 2021-10-31: -0.521 percentage points 2021-11-30: -0.447 percentage points 2021-12-31: -0.44 percentage points 2022-01-31: -0.344 percentage points 2022-02-28: -0.209 percentage points 2022-03-31: -0.858 percentage points 2022-04-30: -0.313 percentage points 2022-05-31: -0.115 percentage points 2022-06-30: 0.077 percentage points 2022-07-31: 0.016 percentage points 2022-08-31: -0.025 percentage points 2022-09-30: 0.032 percentage points 2022-10-31: 0.112 percentage points 2022-11-30: -0.217 percentage points 2022-12-31: 0.005 percentage points 2023-01-31: -0.007 percentage points 2023-02-28: -0.136 percentage points 2023-03-31: -0.172 percentage points 2023-04-30: 0.218 percentage points 2023-05-31: 0.165 percentage points 2023-06-30: 0.208 percentage points 2023-07-31: 0.046 percentage points 2023-08-31: 0.102 percentage points 2023-09-30: 0.018 percentage points 2023-10-31: 0.256 percentage points 2023-11-30: -0.053 percentage points 2023-12-31: -0.204 percentage points 2024-01-31: -0.039 percentage points 2024-02-29: -0.104 percentage points 2024-03-31: -0.06 percentage points 2024-04-30: -0.173 percentage points 2024-05-31: -0.1 percentage points 2024-06-30: 0.005 percentage points 2024-07-31: -0.058 percentage points 2024-08-31: -0.006 percentage points 2024-09-30: -0.064 percentage points 2024-10-31: -0.334 percentage points 2024-11-30: -0.194 percentage points 2024-12-31: -0.433 percentage points 2025-01-31: -0.267 percentage points 2025-02-28: -0.223 percentage points 2025-03-31: -0.002 percentage points 2025-04-30: -0.058 percentage points 2025-05-31: -0.169 percentage points 2025-06-30: -0.185 percentage points 2025-07-31: -0.204 percentage points 2025-08-31: -0.152 percentage points 2025-09-30: -0.286 percentage points 2025-10-31: -0.253 percentage points 2025-11-30: -0.198 percentage points 2025-12-31: -0.207 percentage points 2026-01-31: -0.258 percentage points 2026-02-28: -0.257 percentage points 2026-03-31: -0.262 percentage points 2026-04-30: -0.199 percentage points 2026-05-31: -0.373 percentage points 2026-06-30: -0.285 percentage points 2026-07-31: -0.31 percentage points 2026-08-31: -0.225 percentage points 2026-09-30: -0.392 percentage points 31 Oct 2011 16 Apr 2019 30 Sep 2026 Showing periods 466–645 of 645 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.
← Older periods Uses the data available in this saved assessment; later revisions may change historical values. This reconstructed chart does not show what was known on each historical date. Missing source periods break the line; unavailable metric values are omitted. Quality is evaluated at the assessment date.
Exact values · final 12 periods in this chart window Method, sources and timing Economic period & freshness Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.
THE PUBLISHED TRANSFORM Output the latest original published reading for its native economic period.The EBP is the part of the GZ corporate spread not explained by modeled expected defaults; it is a model-dependent measure of credit risk appetite. This is staff research, not an official statistical release; updates can be delayed and the entire history revised. The published research-model recession probability remains in the original file only. It is not an ECO I crash probability. EBP and corporate spreads overlap OFR credit inputs. They add explanation, not independent votes or validated severity thresholds.
Definition 9.0.0 · us_excess_bond_premium VALIDATION MATURITY Research informed The EBP is the part of the GZ corporate spread not explained by modeled expected defaults; it is a model-dependent measure of credit risk appetite.
Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.
Original Board EBP CSV · d7a7ddf7bdaa… ↗
Showing 1 of 1 retained source files. All retained source file hashes (JSON) ↗
Published staff research output. Credit: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The file's est_prob is its research-model recession estimate, not ECO I's assessment or a stock-crash probability. Underlying proprietary inputs are excluded. File hashes identify the exact retrieved bytes; these are not historical point-in-time vintages.
Chart source observations · 180 periods in this window Canonical source observations, percentage points 180 observed values from 2011-10-31 to 2026-09-30. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query. -1 0 1 2011-10-31: -0.073 percentage points 2011-11-30: 0.533 percentage points 2011-12-31: 0.311 percentage points 2012-01-31: 0.217 percentage points 2012-02-29: 0.094 percentage points 2012-03-31: -0.318 percentage points 2012-04-30: -0.132 percentage points 2012-05-31: -0.051 percentage points 2012-06-30: 0.201 percentage points 2012-07-31: 0.032 percentage points 2012-08-31: -0.175 percentage points 2012-09-30: -0.122 percentage points 2012-10-31: -0.153 percentage points 2012-11-30: -0.022 percentage points 2012-12-31: -0.139 percentage points 2013-01-31: -0.067 percentage points 2013-02-28: -0.002 percentage points 2013-03-31: -0.070 percentage points 2013-04-30: -0.095 percentage points 2013-05-31: -0.481 percentage points 2013-06-30: -0.348 percentage points 2013-07-31: 0.008 percentage points 2013-08-31: -0.109 percentage points 2013-09-30: -0.120 percentage points 2013-10-31: -0.019 percentage points 2013-11-30: 0.022 percentage points 2013-12-31: -0.134 percentage points 2014-01-31: -0.293 percentage points 2014-02-28: -0.188 percentage points 2014-03-31: -0.258 percentage points 2014-04-30: -0.341 percentage points 2014-05-31: -0.358 percentage points 2014-06-30: -0.293 percentage points 2014-07-31: -0.308 percentage points 2014-08-31: -0.303 percentage points 2014-09-30: -0.207 percentage points 2014-10-31: -0.207 percentage points 2014-11-30: 0.070 percentage points 2014-12-31: 0.089 percentage points 2015-01-31: -0.040 percentage points 2015-02-28: -0.291 percentage points 2015-03-31: -0.128 percentage points 2015-04-30: 0.013 percentage points 2015-05-31: 0.059 percentage points 2015-06-30: 0.157 percentage points 2015-07-31: 0.218 percentage points 2015-08-31: 0.408 percentage points 2015-09-30: 0.547 percentage points 2015-10-31: 0.434 percentage points 2015-11-30: 0.521 percentage points 2015-12-31: 0.691 percentage points 2016-01-31: 0.925 percentage points 2016-02-29: 0.957 percentage points 2016-03-31: 0.592 percentage points 2016-04-30: 0.246 percentage points 2016-05-31: 0.260 percentage points 2016-06-30: 0.065 percentage points 2016-07-31: 0.015 percentage points 2016-08-31: -0.009 percentage points 2016-09-30: -0.065 percentage points 2016-10-31: -0.063 percentage points 2016-11-30: -0.750 percentage points 2016-12-31: -0.232 percentage points 2017-01-31: -0.184 percentage points 2017-02-28: -0.170 percentage points 2017-03-31: -0.159 percentage points 2017-04-30: -0.106 percentage points 2017-05-31: -0.155 percentage points 2017-06-30: -0.111 percentage points 2017-07-31: -0.136 percentage points 2017-08-31: -0.067 percentage points 2017-09-30: -0.247 percentage points 2017-10-31: -0.201 percentage points 2017-11-30: -0.118 percentage points 2017-12-31: -0.184 percentage points 2018-01-31: -0.390 percentage points 2018-02-28: -0.231 percentage points 2018-03-31: -0.091 percentage points 2018-04-30: -0.273 percentage points 2018-05-31: -0.185 percentage points 2018-06-30: 0.040 percentage points 2018-07-31: -0.114 percentage points 2018-08-31: -0.083 percentage points 2018-09-30: -0.164 percentage points 2018-10-31: 0.017 percentage points 2018-11-30: 0.161 percentage points 2018-12-31: 0.360 percentage points 2019-01-31: 0.200 percentage points 2019-02-28: 0.091 percentage points 2019-03-31: -0.104 percentage points 2019-04-30: 0.019 percentage points 2019-05-31: 0.000 percentage points 2019-06-30: 0.029 percentage points 2019-07-31: -0.024 percentage points 2019-08-31: -0.145 percentage points 2019-09-30: -0.222 percentage points 2019-10-31: -0.216 percentage points 2019-11-30: -0.158 percentage points 2019-12-31: -0.269 percentage points 2020-01-31: -0.236 percentage points 2020-02-29: -0.151 percentage points 2020-03-31: 1.19 percentage points 2020-04-30: 0.655 percentage points 2020-05-31: 0.413 percentage points 2020-06-30: 0.055 percentage points 2020-07-31: -0.156 percentage points 2020-08-31: -0.282 percentage points 2020-09-30: 0.007 percentage points 2020-10-31: -0.203 percentage points 2020-11-30: -0.460 percentage points 2020-12-31: -0.490 percentage points 2021-01-31: -0.646 percentage points 2021-02-28: -0.947 percentage points 2021-03-31: -0.738 percentage points 2021-04-30: -0.478 percentage points 2021-05-31: -0.414 percentage points 2021-06-30: -0.579 percentage points 2021-07-31: -0.552 percentage points 2021-08-31: -0.473 percentage points 2021-09-30: -0.643 percentage points 2021-10-31: -0.521 percentage points 2021-11-30: -0.447 percentage points 2021-12-31: -0.440 percentage points 2022-01-31: -0.344 percentage points 2022-02-28: -0.209 percentage points 2022-03-31: -0.858 percentage points 2022-04-30: -0.313 percentage points 2022-05-31: -0.115 percentage points 2022-06-30: 0.077 percentage points 2022-07-31: 0.016 percentage points 2022-08-31: -0.025 percentage points 2022-09-30: 0.032 percentage points 2022-10-31: 0.112 percentage points 2022-11-30: -0.217 percentage points 2022-12-31: 0.005 percentage points 2023-01-31: -0.007 percentage points 2023-02-28: -0.136 percentage points 2023-03-31: -0.172 percentage points 2023-04-30: 0.218 percentage points 2023-05-31: 0.165 percentage points 2023-06-30: 0.208 percentage points 2023-07-31: 0.046 percentage points 2023-08-31: 0.102 percentage points 2023-09-30: 0.018 percentage points 2023-10-31: 0.256 percentage points 2023-11-30: -0.053 percentage points 2023-12-31: -0.204 percentage points 2024-01-31: -0.039 percentage points 2024-02-29: -0.104 percentage points 2024-03-31: -0.060 percentage points 2024-04-30: -0.173 percentage points 2024-05-31: -0.100 percentage points 2024-06-30: 0.005 percentage points 2024-07-31: -0.058 percentage points 2024-08-31: -0.006 percentage points 2024-09-30: -0.064 percentage points 2024-10-31: -0.334 percentage points 2024-11-30: -0.194 percentage points 2024-12-31: -0.433 percentage points 2025-01-31: -0.267 percentage points 2025-02-28: -0.223 percentage points 2025-03-31: -0.002 percentage points 2025-04-30: -0.058 percentage points 2025-05-31: -0.169 percentage points 2025-06-30: -0.185 percentage points 2025-07-31: -0.204 percentage points 2025-08-31: -0.152 percentage points 2025-09-30: -0.286 percentage points 2025-10-31: -0.253 percentage points 2025-11-30: -0.198 percentage points 2025-12-31: -0.207 percentage points 2026-01-31: -0.258 percentage points 2026-02-28: -0.257 percentage points 2026-03-31: -0.262 percentage points 2026-04-30: -0.199 percentage points 2026-05-31: -0.373 percentage points 2026-06-30: -0.285 percentage points 2026-07-31: -0.310 percentage points 2026-08-31: -0.225 percentage points 2026-09-30: -0.392 percentage points 31 Oct 2011 16 Apr 2019 30 Sep 2026 Showing periods 466–645 of 645 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.
← Older periods Uses snapshot-selected vintages. The final eight exact values in this window are tabulated above. The pinned JSON query provides all matching observations and provenance; follow its cursor for further pages.
Snapshot identity Snapshot ero_us_macro_financial_20261027T003609Z_3476e48f61e8 Profile version 11.0.0 Generated 27 Oct 2026 · 00:38 UTC Analytical content SHA-256 3476e48f61e89a392bf424594d533e4786040223a0d6bad7c1aa54e7ac1c3ce3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Data access dates are supplied as retrieved_at in canonical observations. Latest retained BLS access: 03 Oct 2026 · 00:33 UTC. BLS source terms
Source: BIS debt service, credit and credit-gap statistics; debt service is model-based. ECO I's calculations and interpretation are its own; BIS does not endorse them. BIS statistical-use terms