U.S. ECONOMY & MARKETS27 Oct 2026 · 00:36 UTC
IndicatorsGZ corporate bond spread

INDICATOR DETAIL

GZ corporate bond spread

0.926percentage points
ValidPeriod ending 30 Sep 2026Available 07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC

GZ corporate bond spread

History

645 readings.

All retained dates

Dates refer to the economic period ending and apply to all charts below. Leave a date blank for an open range.

Published metric history, percentage points180 observed values from 2011-10-31 to 2026-09-30. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query.12342011-10-31: 2.812 percentage points2011-11-30: 2.997 percentage points2011-12-31: 2.888 percentage points2012-01-31: 2.768 percentage points2012-02-29: 2.52 percentage points2012-03-31: 2.447 percentage points2012-04-30: 2.538 percentage points2012-05-31: 2.809 percentage points2012-06-30: 2.76 percentage points2012-07-31: 2.612 percentage points2012-08-31: 2.539 percentage points2012-09-30: 2.416 percentage points2012-10-31: 2.256 percentage points2012-11-30: 2.351 percentage points2012-12-31: 2.247 percentage points2013-01-31: 2.127 percentage points2013-02-28: 2.174 percentage points2013-03-31: 2.151 percentage points2013-04-30: 2.091 percentage points2013-05-31: 2.001 percentage points2013-06-30: 2.176 percentage points2013-07-31: 2.051 percentage points2013-08-31: 2.024 percentage points2013-09-30: 2.094 percentage points2013-10-31: 1.999 percentage points2013-11-30: 1.952 percentage points2013-12-31: 1.798 percentage points2014-01-31: 1.855 percentage points2014-02-28: 1.756 percentage points2014-03-31: 1.706 percentage points2014-04-30: 1.65 percentage points2014-05-31: 1.648 percentage points2014-06-30: 1.617 percentage points2014-07-31: 1.675 percentage points2014-08-31: 1.672 percentage points2014-09-30: 1.822 percentage points2014-10-31: 1.924 percentage points2014-11-30: 2.087 percentage points2014-12-31: 2.179 percentage points2015-01-31: 2.257 percentage points2015-02-28: 2.013 percentage points2015-03-31: 2.123 percentage points2015-04-30: 2.094 percentage points2015-05-31: 2.1 percentage points2015-06-30: 2.219 percentage points2015-07-31: 2.353 percentage points2015-08-31: 2.465 percentage points2015-09-30: 2.679 percentage points2015-10-31: 2.453 percentage points2015-11-30: 2.51 percentage points2015-12-31: 2.721 percentage points2016-01-31: 3.113 percentage points2016-02-29: 3.129 percentage points2016-03-31: 2.713 percentage points2016-04-30: 2.436 percentage points2016-05-31: 2.405 percentage points2016-06-30: 2.506 percentage points2016-07-31: 2.311 percentage points2016-08-31: 2.116 percentage points2016-09-30: 2.107 percentage points2016-10-31: 1.913 percentage points2016-11-30: 1.823 percentage points2016-12-31: 1.687 percentage points2017-01-31: 1.644 percentage points2017-02-28: 1.597 percentage points2017-03-31: 1.632 percentage points2017-04-30: 1.62 percentage points2017-05-31: 1.585 percentage points2017-06-30: 1.564 percentage points2017-07-31: 1.509 percentage points2017-08-31: 1.624 percentage points2017-09-30: 1.509 percentage points2017-10-31: 1.437 percentage points2017-11-30: 1.452 percentage points2017-12-31: 1.412 percentage points2018-01-31: 1.277 percentage points2018-02-28: 1.375 percentage points2018-03-31: 1.537 percentage points2018-04-30: 1.45 percentage points2018-05-31: 1.535 percentage points2018-06-30: 1.622 percentage points2018-07-31: 1.488 percentage points2018-08-31: 1.523 percentage points2018-09-30: 1.431 percentage points2018-10-31: 1.583 percentage points2018-11-30: 1.789 percentage points2018-12-31: 2.077 percentage points2019-01-31: 1.83 percentage points2019-02-28: 1.648 percentage points2019-03-31: 1.679 percentage points2019-04-30: 1.579 percentage points2019-05-31: 1.816 percentage points2019-06-30: 1.69 percentage points2019-07-31: 1.631 percentage points2019-08-31: 1.808 percentage points2019-09-30: 1.728 percentage points2019-10-31: 1.706 percentage points2019-11-30: 1.639 percentage points2019-12-31: 1.488 percentage points2020-01-31: 1.665 percentage points2020-02-29: 1.985 percentage points2020-03-31: 3.822 percentage points2020-04-30: 2.885 percentage points2020-05-31: 2.523 percentage points2020-06-30: 2.327 percentage points2020-07-31: 2.035 percentage points2020-08-31: 1.939 percentage points2020-09-30: 2.055 percentage points2020-10-31: 1.931 percentage points2020-11-30: 1.673 percentage points2020-12-31: 1.489 percentage points2021-01-31: 1.448 percentage points2021-02-28: 1.393 percentage points2021-03-31: 1.331 percentage points2021-04-30: 1.269 percentage points2021-05-31: 1.261 percentage points2021-06-30: 1.183 percentage points2021-07-31: 1.25 percentage points2021-08-31: 1.245 percentage points2021-09-30: 1.191 percentage points2021-10-31: 1.185 percentage points2021-11-30: 1.334 percentage points2021-12-31: 1.248 percentage points2022-01-31: 1.363 percentage points2022-02-28: 1.526 percentage points2022-03-31: 1.419 percentage points2022-04-30: 1.594 percentage points2022-05-31: 1.586 percentage points2022-06-30: 1.944 percentage points2022-07-31: 1.726 percentage points2022-08-31: 1.72 percentage points2022-09-30: 1.88 percentage points2022-10-31: 1.684 percentage points2022-11-30: 1.579 percentage points2022-12-31: 1.525 percentage points2023-01-31: 1.423 percentage points2023-02-28: 1.491 percentage points2023-03-31: 1.537 percentage points2023-04-30: 1.545 percentage points2023-05-31: 1.578 percentage points2023-06-30: 1.422 percentage points2023-07-31: 1.314 percentage points2023-08-31: 1.35 percentage points2023-09-30: 1.338 percentage points2023-10-31: 1.434 percentage points2023-11-30: 1.199 percentage points2023-12-31: 1.149 percentage points2024-01-31: 1.11 percentage points2024-02-29: 1.11 percentage points2024-03-31: 1.061 percentage points2024-04-30: 1.024 percentage points2024-05-31: 0.991 percentage points2024-06-30: 1.102 percentage points2024-07-31: 1.079 percentage points2024-08-31: 1.102 percentage points2024-09-30: 1.058 percentage points2024-10-31: 0.99 percentage points2024-11-30: 0.955 percentage points2024-12-31: 0.941 percentage points2025-01-31: 0.902 percentage points2025-02-28: 1.001 percentage points2025-03-31: 1.125 percentage points2025-04-30: 1.269 percentage points2025-05-31: 1.026 percentage points2025-06-30: 0.994 percentage points2025-07-31: 0.927 percentage points2025-08-31: 0.942 percentage points2025-09-30: 0.894 percentage points2025-10-31: 0.94 percentage points2025-11-30: 0.945 percentage points2025-12-31: 0.91 percentage points2026-01-31: 0.856 percentage points2026-02-28: 0.974 percentage points2026-03-31: 1.032 percentage points2026-04-30: 0.921 percentage points2026-05-31: 0.835 percentage points2026-06-30: 0.862 percentage points2026-07-31: 0.842 percentage points2026-08-31: 0.879 percentage points2026-09-30: 0.926 percentage points31 Oct 201116 Apr 201930 Sep 2026

Showing periods 466–645 of 645 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.

Uses the data available in this saved assessment; later revisions may change historical values. This reconstructed chart does not show what was known on each historical date. Missing source periods break the line; unavailable metric values are omitted. Quality is evaluated at the assessment date.

Exact values · final 12 periods in this chart window
Exact plotted metric readings
Economic periodValueUnitQuality
31 Oct 20250.94percentage pointsValid
30 Nov 20250.945percentage pointsValid
31 Dec 20250.91percentage pointsValid
31 Jan 20260.856percentage pointsValid
28 Feb 20260.974percentage pointsValid
31 Mar 20261.032percentage pointsValid
30 Apr 20260.921percentage pointsValid
31 May 20260.835percentage pointsValid
30 Jun 20260.862percentage pointsValid
31 Jul 20260.842percentage pointsValid
31 Aug 20260.879percentage pointsValid
30 Sep 20260.926percentage pointsValid
Method, sources and timing

Economic period & freshness

Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.

Source timing diagnostics
InputLatest source periodObservation ageAvailable to ECO ISource status
GZ corporate bond spread30 Sep 202627 days07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTCCurrent
THE PUBLISHED TRANSFORMOutput the latest original published reading for its native economic period.

The EBP is the part of the GZ corporate spread not explained by modeled expected defaults; it is a model-dependent measure of credit risk appetite. This is staff research, not an official statistical release; updates can be delayed and the entire history revised. The published research-model recession probability remains in the original file only. It is not an ECO I crash probability. EBP and corporate spreads overlap OFR credit inputs. They add explanation, not independent votes or validated severity thresholds.

Definition 9.0.0 · us_gz_corporate_spread
VALIDATION MATURITY

Research informed

The EBP is the part of the GZ corporate spread not explained by modeled expected defaults; it is a model-dependent measure of credit risk appetite.

Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.

SOURCE OBSERVATIONS

GZ corporate bond spread

Federal Reserve Board · Excess Bond Premium staff research

Canonical observations JSON ↗
Canonical source observations
Period endingSource valueUnitQualityAvailable to ECO I
28 Feb 20260.974027704547478percentage pointsValid07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC
31 Mar 20261.0323875457604417percentage pointsValid07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC
30 Apr 20260.9206968159940272percentage pointsValid07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC
31 May 20260.8349314908719012percentage pointsValid07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC
30 Jun 20260.8622082734357994percentage pointsValid07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC
31 Jul 20260.8415710676483904percentage pointsValid07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC
31 Aug 20260.8788529799959449percentage pointsValid07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC
30 Sep 20260.9259102941329188percentage pointsValid07 Oct 2026 · 09:12 UTC

Original Board EBP CSV · d7a7ddf7bdaa… ↗

Original Board EBP CSV · cc51b2747654… ↗

Showing 2 of 2 retained source files. All retained source file hashes (JSON) ↗

Published staff research output. Credit: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The file's est_prob is its research-model recession estimate, not ECO I's assessment or a stock-crash probability. Underlying proprietary inputs are excluded. File hashes identify the exact retrieved bytes; these are not historical point-in-time vintages.

Chart source observations · 180 periods in this windowCanonical source observations, percentage points180 observed values from 2011-10-31 to 2026-09-30. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query.12342011-10-31: 2.81 percentage points2011-11-30: 3.00 percentage points2011-12-31: 2.89 percentage points2012-01-31: 2.77 percentage points2012-02-29: 2.52 percentage points2012-03-31: 2.45 percentage points2012-04-30: 2.54 percentage points2012-05-31: 2.81 percentage points2012-06-30: 2.76 percentage points2012-07-31: 2.61 percentage points2012-08-31: 2.54 percentage points2012-09-30: 2.42 percentage points2012-10-31: 2.26 percentage points2012-11-30: 2.35 percentage points2012-12-31: 2.25 percentage points2013-01-31: 2.13 percentage points2013-02-28: 2.17 percentage points2013-03-31: 2.15 percentage points2013-04-30: 2.09 percentage points2013-05-31: 2.00 percentage points2013-06-30: 2.18 percentage points2013-07-31: 2.05 percentage points2013-08-31: 2.02 percentage points2013-09-30: 2.09 percentage points2013-10-31: 2.00 percentage points2013-11-30: 1.95 percentage points2013-12-31: 1.80 percentage points2014-01-31: 1.85 percentage points2014-02-28: 1.76 percentage points2014-03-31: 1.71 percentage points2014-04-30: 1.65 percentage points2014-05-31: 1.65 percentage points2014-06-30: 1.62 percentage points2014-07-31: 1.67 percentage points2014-08-31: 1.67 percentage points2014-09-30: 1.82 percentage points2014-10-31: 1.92 percentage points2014-11-30: 2.09 percentage points2014-12-31: 2.18 percentage points2015-01-31: 2.26 percentage points2015-02-28: 2.01 percentage points2015-03-31: 2.12 percentage points2015-04-30: 2.09 percentage points2015-05-31: 2.10 percentage points2015-06-30: 2.22 percentage points2015-07-31: 2.35 percentage points2015-08-31: 2.47 percentage points2015-09-30: 2.68 percentage points2015-10-31: 2.45 percentage points2015-11-30: 2.51 percentage points2015-12-31: 2.72 percentage points2016-01-31: 3.11 percentage points2016-02-29: 3.13 percentage points2016-03-31: 2.71 percentage points2016-04-30: 2.44 percentage points2016-05-31: 2.41 percentage points2016-06-30: 2.51 percentage points2016-07-31: 2.31 percentage points2016-08-31: 2.12 percentage points2016-09-30: 2.11 percentage points2016-10-31: 1.91 percentage points2016-11-30: 1.82 percentage points2016-12-31: 1.69 percentage points2017-01-31: 1.64 percentage points2017-02-28: 1.60 percentage points2017-03-31: 1.63 percentage points2017-04-30: 1.62 percentage points2017-05-31: 1.58 percentage points2017-06-30: 1.56 percentage points2017-07-31: 1.51 percentage points2017-08-31: 1.62 percentage points2017-09-30: 1.51 percentage points2017-10-31: 1.44 percentage points2017-11-30: 1.45 percentage points2017-12-31: 1.41 percentage points2018-01-31: 1.28 percentage points2018-02-28: 1.38 percentage points2018-03-31: 1.54 percentage points2018-04-30: 1.45 percentage points2018-05-31: 1.54 percentage points2018-06-30: 1.62 percentage points2018-07-31: 1.49 percentage points2018-08-31: 1.52 percentage points2018-09-30: 1.43 percentage points2018-10-31: 1.58 percentage points2018-11-30: 1.79 percentage points2018-12-31: 2.08 percentage points2019-01-31: 1.83 percentage points2019-02-28: 1.65 percentage points2019-03-31: 1.68 percentage points2019-04-30: 1.58 percentage points2019-05-31: 1.82 percentage points2019-06-30: 1.69 percentage points2019-07-31: 1.63 percentage points2019-08-31: 1.81 percentage points2019-09-30: 1.73 percentage points2019-10-31: 1.71 percentage points2019-11-30: 1.64 percentage points2019-12-31: 1.49 percentage points2020-01-31: 1.66 percentage points2020-02-29: 1.99 percentage points2020-03-31: 3.82 percentage points2020-04-30: 2.89 percentage points2020-05-31: 2.52 percentage points2020-06-30: 2.33 percentage points2020-07-31: 2.03 percentage points2020-08-31: 1.94 percentage points2020-09-30: 2.05 percentage points2020-10-31: 1.93 percentage points2020-11-30: 1.67 percentage points2020-12-31: 1.49 percentage points2021-01-31: 1.45 percentage points2021-02-28: 1.39 percentage points2021-03-31: 1.33 percentage points2021-04-30: 1.27 percentage points2021-05-31: 1.26 percentage points2021-06-30: 1.18 percentage points2021-07-31: 1.25 percentage points2021-08-31: 1.24 percentage points2021-09-30: 1.19 percentage points2021-10-31: 1.18 percentage points2021-11-30: 1.33 percentage points2021-12-31: 1.25 percentage points2022-01-31: 1.36 percentage points2022-02-28: 1.53 percentage points2022-03-31: 1.42 percentage points2022-04-30: 1.59 percentage points2022-05-31: 1.59 percentage points2022-06-30: 1.94 percentage points2022-07-31: 1.73 percentage points2022-08-31: 1.72 percentage points2022-09-30: 1.88 percentage points2022-10-31: 1.68 percentage points2022-11-30: 1.58 percentage points2022-12-31: 1.53 percentage points2023-01-31: 1.42 percentage points2023-02-28: 1.49 percentage points2023-03-31: 1.54 percentage points2023-04-30: 1.54 percentage points2023-05-31: 1.58 percentage points2023-06-30: 1.42 percentage points2023-07-31: 1.31 percentage points2023-08-31: 1.35 percentage points2023-09-30: 1.34 percentage points2023-10-31: 1.43 percentage points2023-11-30: 1.20 percentage points2023-12-31: 1.15 percentage points2024-01-31: 1.11 percentage points2024-02-29: 1.11 percentage points2024-03-31: 1.06 percentage points2024-04-30: 1.02 percentage points2024-05-31: 0.991 percentage points2024-06-30: 1.10 percentage points2024-07-31: 1.08 percentage points2024-08-31: 1.10 percentage points2024-09-30: 1.06 percentage points2024-10-31: 0.990 percentage points2024-11-30: 0.955 percentage points2024-12-31: 0.941 percentage points2025-01-31: 0.902 percentage points2025-02-28: 1.00 percentage points2025-03-31: 1.12 percentage points2025-04-30: 1.27 percentage points2025-05-31: 1.03 percentage points2025-06-30: 0.994 percentage points2025-07-31: 0.927 percentage points2025-08-31: 0.942 percentage points2025-09-30: 0.894 percentage points2025-10-31: 0.940 percentage points2025-11-30: 0.945 percentage points2025-12-31: 0.910 percentage points2026-01-31: 0.856 percentage points2026-02-28: 0.974 percentage points2026-03-31: 1.03 percentage points2026-04-30: 0.921 percentage points2026-05-31: 0.835 percentage points2026-06-30: 0.862 percentage points2026-07-31: 0.842 percentage points2026-08-31: 0.879 percentage points2026-09-30: 0.926 percentage points31 Oct 201116 Apr 201930 Sep 2026

Showing periods 466–645 of 645 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.

Uses snapshot-selected vintages. The final eight exact values in this window are tabulated above. The pinned JSON query provides all matching observations and provenance; follow its cursor for further pages.

Snapshot identity
Snapshot
ero_us_macro_financial_20261027T003609Z_3476e48f61e8
Profile version
11.0.0
Generated
27 Oct 2026 · 00:38 UTC
Analytical content SHA-256
3476e48f61e89a392bf424594d533e4786040223a0d6bad7c1aa54e7ac1c3ce3

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Data access dates are supplied as retrieved_at in canonical observations. Latest retained BLS access: 03 Oct 2026 · 00:33 UTC. BLS source terms

Source: BIS debt service, credit and credit-gap statistics; debt service is model-based. ECO I's calculations and interpretation are its own; BIS does not endorse them. BIS statistical-use terms