U.S. ECONOMY & MARKETS27 Oct 2026 · 00:36 UTC
IndicatorsXm credit to gdp gap

INDICATOR DETAIL

Credit-to-GDP gap (euro area)

-17.1percentage_points_of_gdp
ValidPeriod ending 31 Mar 2026Available 22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC

Credit-to-GDP gap (euro area)

History

69 readings.

All retained dates

Dates refer to the economic period ending and apply to all charts below. Leave a date blank for an open range.

Published metric history, percentage_points_of_gdp69 observed values from 2009-03-31 to 2026-03-31. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query.-20-1002009-03-31: 4.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-06-30: 4.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-09-30: 4.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-12-31: 7.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-03-31: 5.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-06-30: 5 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-09-30: 2.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-12-31: 1.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-03-31: -1.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-06-30: -1.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-09-30: -2.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-12-31: -2.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-03-31: -2.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-06-30: -2.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-09-30: -3.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-12-31: -4.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-03-31: -5.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-06-30: -6.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-09-30: -7.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-12-31: -9.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-03-31: -10.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-06-30: -10.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-09-30: -10.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-12-31: -9.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-03-31: -6.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-06-30: -7.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-09-30: -9.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-12-31: -10.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-03-31: -10.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-06-30: -10 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-09-30: -10.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-12-31: -11 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-03-31: -10.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-06-30: -11.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-09-30: -12.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-12-31: -13 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-03-31: -13.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-06-30: -12.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-09-30: -12.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-12-31: -13.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-03-31: -13.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-06-30: -12.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-09-30: -12.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-12-31: -13.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-03-31: -10.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-06-30: -2.4 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-09-30: -0.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-12-31: 1.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-03-31: 2.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-06-30: -2.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-09-30: -5.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-12-31: -7.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-03-31: -9.2 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-06-30: -10.8 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-09-30: -11.3 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-12-31: -13.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-03-31: -16.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-06-30: -18 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-09-30: -19.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-12-31: -19.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-03-31: -20.6 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-06-30: -20.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-09-30: -20 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-12-31: -19.5 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-03-31: -19.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-06-30: -18.9 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-09-30: -18.7 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-12-31: -18.1 percentage_points_of_gdp2026-03-31: -17.1 percentage_points_of_gdp31 Mar 200929 Sep 201731 Mar 2026

Showing periods 1–69 of 69 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.

Uses the data available in this saved assessment; later revisions may change historical values. This reconstructed chart does not show what was known on each historical date. Missing source periods break the line; unavailable metric values are omitted. Quality is evaluated at the assessment date.

Exact values · final 12 periods in this chart window
Exact plotted metric readings
Economic periodValueUnitQuality
30 Jun 2023-18percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Sep 2023-19.1percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Dec 2023-19.6percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Mar 2024-20.6percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Jun 2024-20.1percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Sep 2024-20percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Dec 2024-19.5percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Mar 2025-19.1percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Jun 2025-18.9percentage_points_of_gdpValid
30 Sep 2025-18.7percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Dec 2025-18.1percentage_points_of_gdpValid
31 Mar 2026-17.1percentage_points_of_gdpValid
Method, sources and timing

Economic period & freshness

Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.

Source timing diagnostics
InputLatest source periodObservation ageAvailable to ECO ISource status
Xm credit to gdp gap31 Mar 2026210 days22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTCCurrent
THE PUBLISHED TRANSFORMOutput the latest original published value for its native economic period.

The credit-to-GDP ratio's deviation from its one-sided Hodrick-Prescott trend (smoothing 400,000), in percentage points of GDP. It is the Basel III guide for the countercyclical capital buffer. The trend is estimated from past data only and moves with it; a gap near the start of a series, or after a long boom or bust, is less reliable. Large negative gaps after deleveraging do not mean safety. Above 2 points marks the Basel III buffer guide and above 10 points the historical crisis zone; both are context here, not ECO I rules. Publication trails the quarter by about five to six months; availability is the first retrieval.

Definition 11.0.0 · xm_credit_to_gdp_gap
VALIDATION MATURITY

Research informed

Credit to the private non-financial sector and its gap to trend: the best-documented early indicator of financial crises (Basel III buffer guide; Greenwood, Hanson, Shleifer and Sorensen).

Published official-source context; the complete assessment and these supplementary growth/capacity interpretations are not established as calibrated crisis forecasts.

Canonical observations JSON ↗
Canonical source observations
Period endingSource valueUnitQualityAvailable to ECO I
30 Jun 2024-20.0548percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
30 Sep 2024-20.0277percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
31 Dec 2024-19.5124percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
31 Mar 2025-19.0885percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
30 Jun 2025-18.9431percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
30 Sep 2025-18.7289percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
31 Dec 2025-18.1467percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC
31 Mar 2026-17.0674percentage_points_of_gdpValid22 Oct 2026 · 20:24 UTC

Original BIS credit statistics CSV · 1c9dd0fd1cf7… ↗

Showing 1 of 1 retained source files. All retained source file hashes (JSON) ↗

Source: BIS total credit and credit-to-GDP gap statistics; no BIS endorsement. Free statistical reuse with attribution under BIS permitted-use terms. File hashes identify the exact retrieved bytes; these are not historical point-in-time vintages.

Chart source observations · 69 periods in this windowCanonical source observations, percentage_points_of_gdp69 observed values from 2009-03-31 to 2026-03-31. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query.-20-1002009-03-31: 4.1127 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-06-30: 4.6878 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-09-30: 4.5773 percentage_points_of_gdp2009-12-31: 7.1353 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-03-31: 5.7912 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-06-30: 5.0336 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-09-30: 2.5685 percentage_points_of_gdp2010-12-31: 1.1353 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-03-31: -1.2658 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-06-30: -1.8471 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-09-30: -2.5801 percentage_points_of_gdp2011-12-31: -2.1346 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-03-31: -2.3736 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-06-30: -2.274 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-09-30: -3.0988 percentage_points_of_gdp2012-12-31: -4.5247 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-03-31: -5.7109 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-06-30: -6.6946 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-09-30: -7.6859 percentage_points_of_gdp2013-12-31: -9.4311 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-03-31: -10.1182 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-06-30: -10.1604 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-09-30: -10.7641 percentage_points_of_gdp2014-12-31: -9.8755 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-03-31: -6.319 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-06-30: -7.9375 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-09-30: -9.1229 percentage_points_of_gdp2015-12-31: -10.596 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-03-31: -10.7147 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-06-30: -10.0205 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-09-30: -10.4263 percentage_points_of_gdp2016-12-31: -10.9907 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-03-31: -10.1893 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-06-30: -11.6508 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-09-30: -12.7318 percentage_points_of_gdp2017-12-31: -13.0104 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-03-31: -13.4119 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-06-30: -12.6451 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-09-30: -12.8252 percentage_points_of_gdp2018-12-31: -13.5804 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-03-31: -13.1938 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-06-30: -12.5843 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-09-30: -12.3815 percentage_points_of_gdp2019-12-31: -13.1694 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-03-31: -10.6231 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-06-30: -2.44 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-09-30: -0.2067 percentage_points_of_gdp2020-12-31: 1.4637 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-03-31: 2.4665 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-06-30: -2.7808 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-09-30: -5.234 percentage_points_of_gdp2021-12-31: -7.3327 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-03-31: -9.1731 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-06-30: -10.7519 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-09-30: -11.2858 percentage_points_of_gdp2022-12-31: -13.9297 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-03-31: -16.5063 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-06-30: -18.0027 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-09-30: -19.0826 percentage_points_of_gdp2023-12-31: -19.6323 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-03-31: -20.5601 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-06-30: -20.0548 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-09-30: -20.0277 percentage_points_of_gdp2024-12-31: -19.5124 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-03-31: -19.0885 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-06-30: -18.9431 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-09-30: -18.7289 percentage_points_of_gdp2025-12-31: -18.1467 percentage_points_of_gdp2026-03-31: -17.0674 percentage_points_of_gdp31 Mar 200929 Sep 201731 Mar 2026

Showing periods 1–69 of 69 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.

Uses snapshot-selected vintages. The final eight exact values in this window are tabulated above. The pinned JSON query provides all matching observations and provenance; follow its cursor for further pages.

Snapshot identity
Snapshot
ero_us_macro_financial_20261027T003609Z_3476e48f61e8
Profile version
11.0.0
Generated
27 Oct 2026 · 00:38 UTC
Analytical content SHA-256
3476e48f61e89a392bf424594d533e4786040223a0d6bad7c1aa54e7ac1c3ce3

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Data access dates are supplied as retrieved_at in canonical observations. Latest retained BLS access: 03 Oct 2026 · 00:33 UTC. BLS source terms

Source: BIS debt service, credit and credit-gap statistics; debt service is model-based. ECO I's calculations and interpretation are its own; BIS does not endorse them. BIS statistical-use terms