U.S. ECONOMY & MARKETS

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SAVED INITIAL REPORT · AI-GENERATED

Initial report · 08 Sep 2026

This initial baseline is dated in America/New_York and covers a partial week; it does not replace the scheduled Saturday report.

Generated 08 Sep 2026 · 21:24 UTC. Evidence assessed 08 Sep 2026 · 14:41 UTC.

Engine assessment: Valuation caution · Partial. AI selects and organizes verified findings; it does not calculate risk or predict crash dates.

This archived report contains checked findings. A separate AI opinion was not generated for this edition.

  1. Overall risk. Valuation vulnerability is high, while financial stress is subdued and payrolls are growing; this is a partial experimental assessment. Evidence: [1]
  2. Cycle evidence. Payrolls were increasing over three months through 2026-08-31 and real spending was growing over three months through 2026-07-31; these differently dated signals do not establish a formal cycle phase. Evidence: [2, 3, 4]
  3. Valuation. The equity-valuation measure had a historical percentile rank of approximately 97.03 through 2026-03-31; this alone cannot establish a bubble, its bursting or a crash timetable. Evidence: [5, 4]
  4. Financial stress. OFR financial stress was below its historical average at -2.79 index points through 2026-09-04; the index cannot guarantee safety or date a crash. Evidence: [6, 4]
  5. Credit. The Fed research Excess Bond Premium was -0.32 percentage points through 2026-07-31; it measures a corporate-credit risk-premium component, not an ECO I recession or crash probability. Evidence: [7, 4]
  6. Labor. The four-week average of initial claims rose by 4.15% versus four weeks earlier and fell by 10.09% versus a year earlier through 2026-08-29; the two horizons can give different signals. Evidence: [8, 9]
  7. Income and spending. The annualized three-month change in real income excluding transfers was 2.26% through 2026-07-31, versus 3.33% for real spending through 2026-07-31; annualized rates are not the actual three-month percentage changes. Evidence: [3, 10]
  8. Weekly change. This is the first saved report, so a comparison with a prior saved report is unavailable; the supplied indicators still include their own historical windows. Evidence: [1, 4, 11]
  9. Coverage. Coverage is United States macroeconomic evidence and OFR global financial stress; these data cannot establish the condition of every major economy, individual stock or intraday market. Evidence: [12]
  10. Uncertainty. No reliable crash probability, crash date, bubble-burst countdown or formal cycle phase is established; limited historical evaluation does not validate such forecasts. Evidence: [4]
Coverage and limits

Experimental information, not financial advice. No calibrated crash probability, crash date, bubble-burst countdown or formal business-cycle phase is established. High valuation is vulnerability, not proof of a bubble or its timing. A lack of measured stress is not a guarantee of safety. Indicators overlap; OFR components are parts of one index, not independent votes. Latest published data has daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly delays. Historical evaluation uses revised data and few recession episodes; it does not validate crash forecasts.

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Experimental information only; verify independently. Sources: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, US Treasury and Office of Financial Research. Independent ECO I analysis; no agency endorsement. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov.

Open the underlying saved assessment · Download this public report (JSON)

Evidence

These are the saved facts cited above. Dates describe the source evidence, which can have publication delays.

1. Assessment
{
  "core_channels_available": 4,
  "core_channels_total": 4,
  "headline": "Valuation vulnerability is high, while financial stress is subdued and payrolls are growing",
  "method_version": "3.0.0",
  "policy_sha256": "0090eacc1eab3550b5a21ffd69f503bff9fdf3efa15b3aceb06cf9458eea67f2",
  "risk_state": "VALUATION_CAUTION",
  "status": "PARTIAL",
  "unknowns": [
    "The exact Sahm-style recession check is unavailable because its full monthly lookback is not valid. Missing CPS months are not skipped or filled."
  ],
  "watch_next": [
    "A rise in OFR stress alongside significant SLOOS tightening would strengthen the financial-risk diagnosis.",
    "A negative three-month payroll change or a valid Sahm-style warning would strengthen the employment-risk diagnosis.",
    "High valuations with emerging financial or labor stress would be more concerning than high valuations alone."
  ]
}
Saved assessment JSON
2. Derived · payroll change
{
  "evidence_sha256": "a4c1bc879141a5904a36c7231f806c1d1fc973dc47bb091b3e83208d0647e894",
  "formula": "Payroll jobs in the latest month minus payroll jobs three months earlier; all four monthly observations required",
  "observation_count": 4,
  "period": "2026-08-31",
  "period_start": "2026-05-31",
  "quality_status": "VALID",
  "unit": "thousand_jobs",
  "value": "214"
}
Saved assessment JSON
3. Derived · real consumption change 3 months annualized percent
{
  "evidence_sha256": "4aa6c24e0e6b2a531086344de558bdfa02818480ac056dab9284915dd33f5b04",
  "formula": "100 * ((latest real SAAR level / real SAAR level 3 months earlier) ** 4 - 1); all 4 consecutive native months must be positive; SAAR scaling cancels in the ratio",
  "observation_count": 4,
  "period": "2026-07-31",
  "period_start": "2026-04-30",
  "quality_status": "VALID",
  "unit": "percent",
  "value": "3.3282498437398846113789928"
}
Saved assessment JSON
4. Limitations
{
  "text": "Experimental information, not financial advice. No calibrated crash probability, crash date, bubble-burst countdown or formal business-cycle phase is established. High valuation is vulnerability, not proof of a bubble or its timing. A lack of measured stress is not a guarantee of safety. Indicators overlap; OFR components are parts of one index, not independent votes. Latest published data has daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly delays. Historical evaluation uses revised data and few recession episodes; it does not validate crash forecasts."
}
Saved assessment JSON
5. Derived · valuation percentile
{
  "evidence_sha256": "145a105b5a42e53c5b8479a072295d4fb32cd5c135b71a12e3e8d9981555ce2a",
  "formula": "100 * (count below current + 0.5 * count equal) / count; expanding current-vintage quarterly history from 1980-01-01",
  "observation_count": 185,
  "period": "2026-03-31",
  "period_start": "1980-03-31",
  "quality_status": "VALID",
  "unit": "percentile",
  "value": "97.02702702702702702702702703"
}
Saved assessment JSON
6. Input · financial stress
{
  "available_at": "2026-09-08T14:41:11.869645Z",
  "evidence_sha256": "65ff2f2221ad9d0fd3568303ae856f1cf417c5f5db81b3bea7b42a1092409750",
  "input_series_ids": [
    "us_ofr_financial_stress"
  ],
  "metric_id": "us_ofr_financial_stress",
  "period": "2026-09-04",
  "quality_status": "VALID",
  "unit": "index_points",
  "value": "-2.791"
}
Indicator and source history · Saved assessment JSON
7. Derived · ebp level
{
  "evidence_sha256": "84b55141b20dc786e0a325cc71d0968d015c6b4025643f17b11cb1afca792749",
  "formula": "Latest native published monthly estimate; no rescaling",
  "observation_count": 1,
  "period": "2026-07-31",
  "period_start": "2026-07-31",
  "quality_status": "VALID",
  "unit": "percentage_points",
  "value": "-0.319112793"
}
Saved assessment JSON
8. Derived · initial claims change 4 weeks percent
{
  "evidence_sha256": "b2fb9605c104c2819508caae3d675b518801b2ae5ab18200190cc82b53b06411",
  "formula": "100 * (latest four-week mean / four-week mean 4 weeks earlier - 1); all 8 consecutive native weeks required",
  "observation_count": 8,
  "period": "2026-08-29",
  "period_start": "2026-07-11",
  "quality_status": "VALID",
  "unit": "percent",
  "value": "4.1457286432160804020100503"
}
Saved assessment JSON
9. Derived · initial claims change 52 weeks percent
{
  "evidence_sha256": "d5cfc0537b1a681c256b37c03d365ea5bd46d34f6e56aa828a0e6fa0c57ece86",
  "formula": "100 * (latest four-week mean / four-week mean 52 weeks earlier - 1); all 56 consecutive native weeks required",
  "observation_count": 56,
  "period": "2026-08-29",
  "period_start": "2025-08-09",
  "quality_status": "VALID",
  "unit": "percent",
  "value": "-10.08676789587852494577006508"
}
Saved assessment JSON
10. Derived · real income ex transfers change 3 months annualized percent
{
  "evidence_sha256": "89e9dbff8e520dbb2ff9a60d8f98bd9d71d54c3d7d06e370986c74cf4f1165f6",
  "formula": "100 * ((latest real SAAR level / real SAAR level 3 months earlier) ** 4 - 1); all 4 consecutive native months must be positive; SAAR scaling cancels in the ratio",
  "observation_count": 4,
  "period": "2026-07-31",
  "period_start": "2026-04-30",
  "quality_status": "VALID",
  "unit": "percent",
  "value": "2.2617325794204371818958222"
}
Saved assessment JSON
11. Weekly comparison
{
  "changes": [],
  "status": "FIRST_RECORDED_WEEK"
}
Saved assessment JSON
12. Scope
{
  "text": "United States macroeconomic evidence and OFR global financial stress only. No comprehensive diagnosis of other major economies, individual assets, AI stocks, geopolitical events or intraday markets. BIS debt-service data is excluded from the external model because Contributor training permission is not established."
}
Saved assessment JSON