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Full disclaimer U.S. ECONOMY & MARKETS 10 Sep 2026 · 00:35 UTC INDICATOR DETAIL
Excess Bond Premium JSON report -0.319 percentage points
Valid Period ending 31 Jul 2026 Available 08 Sep 2026 · 07:53 UTC
An earlier economic period is in use. Requested period: 31 Aug 2026. Actual period: 31 Jul 2026. The source availability date and configured freshness limit are retained. Published metric history, percentage points 180 observed values from 2011-08-31 to 2026-07-31. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query. -1.16 -0.52 0.12 0.76 1.4 2011-08-31: -0.077 percentage points 2011-09-30: 0.466 percentage points 2011-10-31: -0.069 percentage points 2011-11-30: 0.535 percentage points 2011-12-31: 0.314 percentage points 2012-01-31: 0.221 percentage points 2012-02-29: 0.097 percentage points 2012-03-31: -0.314 percentage points 2012-04-30: -0.128 percentage points 2012-05-31: -0.046 percentage points 2012-06-30: 0.204 percentage points 2012-07-31: 0.036 percentage points 2012-08-31: -0.17 percentage points 2012-09-30: -0.117 percentage points 2012-10-31: -0.149 percentage points 2012-11-30: -0.017 percentage points 2012-12-31: -0.136 percentage points 2013-01-31: -0.064 percentage points 2013-02-28: 0.002 percentage points 2013-03-31: -0.066 percentage points 2013-04-30: -0.092 percentage points 2013-05-31: -0.478 percentage points 2013-06-30: -0.346 percentage points 2013-07-31: 0.008 percentage points 2013-08-31: -0.109 percentage points 2013-09-30: -0.119 percentage points 2013-10-31: -0.018 percentage points 2013-11-30: 0.023 percentage points 2013-12-31: -0.135 percentage points 2014-01-31: -0.293 percentage points 2014-02-28: -0.188 percentage points 2014-03-31: -0.26 percentage points 2014-04-30: -0.343 percentage points 2014-05-31: -0.359 percentage points 2014-06-30: -0.295 percentage points 2014-07-31: -0.31 percentage points 2014-08-31: -0.304 percentage points 2014-09-30: -0.209 percentage points 2014-10-31: -0.209 percentage points 2014-11-30: 0.068 percentage points 2014-12-31: 0.087 percentage points 2015-01-31: -0.041 percentage points 2015-02-28: -0.293 percentage points 2015-03-31: -0.13 percentage points 2015-04-30: 0.011 percentage points 2015-05-31: 0.057 percentage points 2015-06-30: 0.155 percentage points 2015-07-31: 0.216 percentage points 2015-08-31: 0.406 percentage points 2015-09-30: 0.545 percentage points 2015-10-31: 0.432 percentage points 2015-11-30: 0.519 percentage points 2015-12-31: 0.688 percentage points 2016-01-31: 0.924 percentage points 2016-02-29: 0.957 percentage points 2016-03-31: 0.591 percentage points 2016-04-30: 0.245 percentage points 2016-05-31: 0.259 percentage points 2016-06-30: 0.066 percentage points 2016-07-31: 0.016 percentage points 2016-08-31: -0.01 percentage points 2016-09-30: -0.066 percentage points 2016-10-31: -0.064 percentage points 2016-11-30: -0.753 percentage points 2016-12-31: -0.235 percentage points 2017-01-31: -0.187 percentage points 2017-02-28: -0.174 percentage points 2017-03-31: -0.162 percentage points 2017-04-30: -0.108 percentage points 2017-05-31: -0.156 percentage points 2017-06-30: -0.114 percentage points 2017-07-31: -0.138 percentage points 2017-08-31: -0.069 percentage points 2017-09-30: -0.25 percentage points 2017-10-31: -0.204 percentage points 2017-11-30: -0.121 percentage points 2017-12-31: -0.188 percentage points 2018-01-31: -0.394 percentage points 2018-02-28: -0.236 percentage points 2018-03-31: -0.096 percentage points 2018-04-30: -0.278 percentage points 2018-05-31: -0.19 percentage points 2018-06-30: 0.034 percentage points 2018-07-31: -0.119 percentage points 2018-08-31: -0.088 percentage points 2018-09-30: -0.17 percentage points 2018-10-31: 0.012 percentage points 2018-11-30: 0.156 percentage points 2018-12-31: 0.357 percentage points 2019-01-31: 0.197 percentage points 2019-02-28: 0.088 percentage points 2019-03-31: -0.106 percentage points 2019-04-30: 0.017 percentage points 2019-05-31: -0.001 percentage points 2019-06-30: 0.029 percentage points 2019-07-31: -0.025 percentage points 2019-08-31: -0.145 percentage points 2019-09-30: -0.223 percentage points 2019-10-31: -0.218 percentage points 2019-11-30: -0.16 percentage points 2019-12-31: -0.271 percentage points 2020-01-31: -0.236 percentage points 2020-02-29: -0.15 percentage points 2020-03-31: 1.189 percentage points 2020-04-30: 0.656 percentage points 2020-05-31: 0.414 percentage points 2020-06-30: 0.057 percentage points 2020-07-31: -0.155 percentage points 2020-08-31: -0.28 percentage points 2020-09-30: 0.008 percentage points 2020-10-31: -0.202 percentage points 2020-11-30: -0.459 percentage points 2020-12-31: -0.489 percentage points 2021-01-31: -0.645 percentage points 2021-02-28: -0.947 percentage points 2021-03-31: -0.738 percentage points 2021-04-30: -0.479 percentage points 2021-05-31: -0.414 percentage points 2021-06-30: -0.579 percentage points 2021-07-31: -0.552 percentage points 2021-08-31: -0.474 percentage points 2021-09-30: -0.644 percentage points 2021-10-31: -0.523 percentage points 2021-11-30: -0.45 percentage points 2021-12-31: -0.443 percentage points 2022-01-31: -0.348 percentage points 2022-02-28: -0.214 percentage points 2022-03-31: -0.868 percentage points 2022-04-30: -0.323 percentage points 2022-05-31: -0.123 percentage points 2022-06-30: 0.07 percentage points 2022-07-31: 0.013 percentage points 2022-08-31: -0.031 percentage points 2022-09-30: 0.023 percentage points 2022-10-31: 0.106 percentage points 2022-11-30: -0.222 percentage points 2022-12-31: -0.001 percentage points 2023-01-31: -0.01 percentage points 2023-02-28: -0.141 percentage points 2023-03-31: -0.175 percentage points 2023-04-30: 0.216 percentage points 2023-05-31: 0.163 percentage points 2023-06-30: 0.205 percentage points 2023-07-31: 0.042 percentage points 2023-08-31: 0.099 percentage points 2023-09-30: 0.013 percentage points 2023-10-31: 0.251 percentage points 2023-11-30: -0.057 percentage points 2023-12-31: -0.206 percentage points 2024-01-31: -0.041 percentage points 2024-02-29: -0.107 percentage points 2024-03-31: -0.064 percentage points 2024-04-30: -0.178 percentage points 2024-05-31: -0.105 percentage points 2024-06-30: 0.001 percentage points 2024-07-31: -0.061 percentage points 2024-08-31: -0.008 percentage points 2024-09-30: -0.066 percentage points 2024-10-31: -0.339 percentage points 2024-11-30: -0.199 percentage points 2024-12-31: -0.439 percentage points 2025-01-31: -0.272 percentage points 2025-02-28: -0.228 percentage points 2025-03-31: -0.006 percentage points 2025-04-30: -0.062 percentage points 2025-05-31: -0.173 percentage points 2025-06-30: -0.188 percentage points 2025-07-31: -0.208 percentage points 2025-08-31: -0.156 percentage points 2025-09-30: -0.29 percentage points 2025-10-31: -0.257 percentage points 2025-11-30: -0.202 percentage points 2025-12-31: -0.21 percentage points 2026-01-31: -0.262 percentage points 2026-02-28: -0.26 percentage points 2026-03-31: -0.267 percentage points 2026-04-30: -0.204 percentage points 2026-05-31: -0.379 percentage points 2026-06-30: -0.289 percentage points 2026-07-31: -0.319 percentage points 31 Aug 2011 14 Feb 2019 31 Jul 2026 Showing periods 464–643 of 643 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.
← Older periods Uses the data available in this saved assessment; later revisions may change historical values. This reconstructed chart does not show what was known on each historical date. Missing source periods break the line; unavailable metric values are omitted. Quality is evaluated at the assessment date.
Exact values · final 12 periods in this chart window Economic period & freshness Calculation uses the latest completed observation available at evaluation time, with its actual economic period and original availability. An older period contributes to assessment only within the configured source-age limit. Newly observed missing or invalid evidence is not replaced with an earlier value. Source status uses economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar; no future release time is inferred.
THE PUBLISHED TRANSFORM What this value measures Excess Bond Premium
Output the latest original published reading for its native economic period.The EBP is the part of the GZ corporate spread not explained by modeled expected defaults; it is a model-dependent measure of credit risk appetite. This is staff research, not an official statistical release; updates can be delayed and the entire history revised. The published research-model recession probability remains in the original file only. It is not an ECO I crash probability. EBP and corporate spreads overlap OFR credit inputs. They add explanation, not independent votes or validated severity thresholds.
Definition 9.0.0 · us_excess_bond_premium VALIDATION MATURITY Research informed The EBP is the part of the GZ corporate spread not explained by modeled expected defaults; it is a model-dependent measure of credit risk appetite.
Published official-source measure; additional descriptive trends are evaluated separately from predictive validation.
Original Board EBP CSV · cc51b2747654… ↗
Showing 1 of 1 retained source files. All retained source file hashes (JSON) ↗
Published staff research output. Credit: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The file's est_prob is its research-model recession estimate, not ECO I's assessment or a stock-crash probability. Underlying proprietary inputs are excluded. File hashes identify the exact retrieved bytes; these are not historical point-in-time vintages.
Chart source observations · 180 periods in this window Canonical source observations, percentage points 180 observed values from 2011-08-31 to 2026-07-31. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query. -1.16 -0.52 0.12 0.76 1.4 2011-08-31: -0.077294817 percentage points 2011-09-30: 0.4661374710520354 percentage points 2011-10-31: -0.06881183 percentage points 2011-11-30: 0.5352757210699894 percentage points 2011-12-31: 0.3135944715522898 percentage points 2012-01-31: 0.2207123138936589 percentage points 2012-02-29: 0.096939601 percentage points 2012-03-31: -0.31444302 percentage points 2012-04-30: -0.127930573 percentage points 2012-05-31: -0.04606573 percentage points 2012-06-30: 0.20441541040267144 percentage points 2012-07-31: 0.036221115 percentage points 2012-08-31: -0.170083205 percentage points 2012-09-30: -0.117445678 percentage points 2012-10-31: -0.148993582 percentage points 2012-11-30: -0.017482851 percentage points 2012-12-31: -0.135859201 percentage points 2013-01-31: -0.063779191 percentage points 2013-02-28: 0.00150747 percentage points 2013-03-31: -0.065844858 percentage points 2013-04-30: -0.091586912 percentage points 2013-05-31: -0.477593276 percentage points 2013-06-30: -0.34645013 percentage points 2013-07-31: 0.008480553 percentage points 2013-08-31: -0.109454356 percentage points 2013-09-30: -0.118565645 percentage points 2013-10-31: -0.017868531 percentage points 2013-11-30: 0.023392909 percentage points 2013-12-31: -0.134867425 percentage points 2014-01-31: -0.292866512 percentage points 2014-02-28: -0.188420308 percentage points 2014-03-31: -0.259681576 percentage points 2014-04-30: -0.3425608 percentage points 2014-05-31: -0.358928476 percentage points 2014-06-30: -0.29462793 percentage points 2014-07-31: -0.310221219 percentage points 2014-08-31: -0.304324379 percentage points 2014-09-30: -0.209250657 percentage points 2014-10-31: -0.208946809 percentage points 2014-11-30: 0.068194089 percentage points 2014-12-31: 0.086554843 percentage points 2015-01-31: -0.040918854 percentage points 2015-02-28: -0.293370049 percentage points 2015-03-31: -0.130191709 percentage points 2015-04-30: 0.010819788 percentage points 2015-05-31: 0.057198008 percentage points 2015-06-30: 0.1546801573253722 percentage points 2015-07-31: 0.21576383903852217 percentage points 2015-08-31: 0.40582594746249967 percentage points 2015-09-30: 0.5449382426337137 percentage points 2015-10-31: 0.4315476160146208 percentage points 2015-11-30: 0.5185791529452692 percentage points 2015-12-31: 0.6879811691147055 percentage points 2016-01-31: 0.9241442585253732 percentage points 2016-02-29: 0.9569058226820192 percentage points 2016-03-31: 0.5910173569759349 percentage points 2016-04-30: 0.24519151274975928 percentage points 2016-05-31: 0.25904824722033304 percentage points 2016-06-30: 0.06615263 percentage points 2016-07-31: 0.015588451 percentage points 2016-08-31: -0.010384168 percentage points 2016-09-30: -0.065607405 percentage points 2016-10-31: -0.064113857 percentage points 2016-11-30: -0.752725351 percentage points 2016-12-31: -0.235344144 percentage points 2017-01-31: -0.187126776 percentage points 2017-02-28: -0.173516699 percentage points 2017-03-31: -0.161834774 percentage points 2017-04-30: -0.108480725 percentage points 2017-05-31: -0.156220275 percentage points 2017-06-30: -0.113845574 percentage points 2017-07-31: -0.137932537 percentage points 2017-08-31: -0.068943009 percentage points 2017-09-30: -0.249547708 percentage points 2017-10-31: -0.204151295 percentage points 2017-11-30: -0.121285792 percentage points 2017-12-31: -0.187660282 percentage points 2018-01-31: -0.394355351 percentage points 2018-02-28: -0.236287531 percentage points 2018-03-31: -0.095634063 percentage points 2018-04-30: -0.278184622 percentage points 2018-05-31: -0.18982525 percentage points 2018-06-30: 0.034354969 percentage points 2018-07-31: -0.119296776 percentage points 2018-08-31: -0.088291546 percentage points 2018-09-30: -0.169707869 percentage points 2018-10-31: 0.011548366 percentage points 2018-11-30: 0.1559186108522519 percentage points 2018-12-31: 0.3572290482736722 percentage points 2019-01-31: 0.19675019449701692 percentage points 2019-02-28: 0.088029079 percentage points 2019-03-31: -0.106053292 percentage points 2019-04-30: 0.017149981 percentage points 2019-05-31: -0.000771 percentage points 2019-06-30: 0.028797512 percentage points 2019-07-31: -0.025257189 percentage points 2019-08-31: -0.144735059 percentage points 2019-09-30: -0.222855569 percentage points 2019-10-31: -0.217656809 percentage points 2019-11-30: -0.160330256 percentage points 2019-12-31: -0.270694614 percentage points 2020-01-31: -0.235989012 percentage points 2020-02-29: -0.149597594 percentage points 2020-03-31: 1.189083209570024 percentage points 2020-04-30: 0.6555480379487717 percentage points 2020-05-31: 0.4144726672764047 percentage points 2020-06-30: 0.057092457 percentage points 2020-07-31: -0.155139972 percentage points 2020-08-31: -0.280433934 percentage points 2020-09-30: 0.008452656 percentage points 2020-10-31: -0.202160999 percentage points 2020-11-30: -0.459277995 percentage points 2020-12-31: -0.488933418 percentage points 2021-01-31: -0.645160715 percentage points 2021-02-28: -0.946902057 percentage points 2021-03-31: -0.738394606 percentage points 2021-04-30: -0.478563192 percentage points 2021-05-31: -0.413890168 percentage points 2021-06-30: -0.579422711 percentage points 2021-07-31: -0.551676986 percentage points 2021-08-31: -0.47390932 percentage points 2021-09-30: -0.644406048 percentage points 2021-10-31: -0.523396255 percentage points 2021-11-30: -0.449534067 percentage points 2021-12-31: -0.44312942 percentage points 2022-01-31: -0.348436832 percentage points 2022-02-28: -0.214296132 percentage points 2022-03-31: -0.867984595 percentage points 2022-04-30: -0.322768438 percentage points 2022-05-31: -0.122691995 percentage points 2022-06-30: 0.069645873 percentage points 2022-07-31: 0.012688492 percentage points 2022-08-31: -0.031072599 percentage points 2022-09-30: 0.023376246 percentage points 2022-10-31: 0.10562687140879934 percentage points 2022-11-30: -0.222350227 percentage points 2022-12-31: -0.000515 percentage points 2023-01-31: -0.010451689 percentage points 2023-02-28: -0.141215537 percentage points 2023-03-31: -0.174891206 percentage points 2023-04-30: 0.21595858737251716 percentage points 2023-05-31: 0.16293474226695823 percentage points 2023-06-30: 0.20462650513089264 percentage points 2023-07-31: 0.042364092 percentage points 2023-08-31: 0.098565093 percentage points 2023-09-30: 0.01343593 percentage points 2023-10-31: 0.2514222948689693 percentage points 2023-11-30: -0.056560712 percentage points 2023-12-31: -0.206077633 percentage points 2024-01-31: -0.040666761 percentage points 2024-02-29: -0.107260094 percentage points 2024-03-31: -0.063786111 percentage points 2024-04-30: -0.178409692 percentage points 2024-05-31: -0.104570002 percentage points 2024-06-30: 0.001455876 percentage points 2024-07-31: -0.061001547 percentage points 2024-08-31: -0.008495966 percentage points 2024-09-30: -0.066409247 percentage points 2024-10-31: -0.339019034 percentage points 2024-11-30: -0.198655883 percentage points 2024-12-31: -0.43939292 percentage points 2025-01-31: -0.272400271 percentage points 2025-02-28: -0.227568702 percentage points 2025-03-31: -0.00611337 percentage points 2025-04-30: -0.061913004 percentage points 2025-05-31: -0.173428658 percentage points 2025-06-30: -0.188359312 percentage points 2025-07-31: -0.208270975 percentage points 2025-08-31: -0.155649663 percentage points 2025-09-30: -0.289955753 percentage points 2025-10-31: -0.257347188 percentage points 2025-11-30: -0.201551391 percentage points 2025-12-31: -0.21049914 percentage points 2026-01-31: -0.261892514 percentage points 2026-02-28: -0.259817995 percentage points 2026-03-31: -0.267309249 percentage points 2026-04-30: -0.20399087 percentage points 2026-05-31: -0.378712568 percentage points 2026-06-30: -0.288627763 percentage points 2026-07-31: -0.319112793 percentage points 31 Aug 2011 14 Feb 2019 31 Jul 2026 Showing periods 464–643 of 643 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.
← Older periods Uses snapshot-selected vintages. The final eight exact values in this window are tabulated above. The pinned JSON query provides all matching observations and provenance; follow its cursor for further pages.
Snapshot identity & machine-readable report Snapshot ero_us_macro_financial_20260910T003539Z_f004bde27e96 Profile version 10.0.0 Generated 10 Sep 2026 · 00:47 UTC Analytical content SHA-256 f004bde27e969e3c81739b5588813c41b24e66d3926e28a0455a2692f9797820 Open the pinned JSON report Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Data access dates are supplied as retrieved_at in canonical observations. Latest retained BLS access: 05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC. BLS source terms
Source: BIS debt service ratio statistics. Model-based estimates. ECO I's calculations and interpretation are its own; BIS does not endorse them. BIS data are provided free of charge with attribution. BIS statistical-use terms