U.S. ECONOMY & MARKETS10 Sep 2026 · 00:35 UTC

INDICATOR DETAIL

Monthly average Treasury ten-year minus three-month yield

JSON report
0.81percentage points
ValidPeriod ending 31 Aug 2026Available 05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC

History

6 readings.

History JSON ↗
All retained dates

Dates refer to the economic period ending and apply to all charts below. Leave a date blank for an open range.

Published metric history, percentage points6 observed values from 2026-03-31 to 2026-08-31. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query.0.50.590.670.750.842026-03-31: 0.53 percentage points2026-04-30: 0.62 percentage points2026-05-31: 0.8 percentage points2026-06-30: 0.66 percentage points2026-07-31: 0.73 percentage points2026-08-31: 0.81 percentage points31 Mar 202615 Jun 202631 Aug 2026

Showing periods 1–6 of 6 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.

Uses the data available in this saved assessment; later revisions may change historical values. This reconstructed chart does not show what was known on each historical date. Missing source periods break the line; unavailable metric values are omitted. Quality is evaluated at the assessment date.

Exact values · final 12 periods in this chart window
Exact plotted metric readings
Economic periodValueUnitQuality
31 Mar 20260.53percentage pointsStale
30 Apr 20260.62percentage pointsStale
31 May 20260.8percentage pointsStale
30 Jun 20260.66percentage pointsStale
31 Jul 20260.73percentage pointsStale
31 Aug 20260.81percentage pointsValid

Economic period & freshness

Calculation uses the completed evaluation period. Source age and retrieval timing are separate from the value's economic period and availability. Source status uses configured economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar.

Source timing diagnostics
InputLatest source periodObservation ageAvailable to ECO ISource status
Treasury 10-year par yield09 Sep 20261 days10 Sep 2026 · 00:35 UTCCurrent
Treasury 3-month par yield09 Sep 20261 days10 Sep 2026 · 00:35 UTCCurrent
THE PUBLISHED TRANSFORM

What this value measures

Mean of paired daily Treasury constant-maturity par-yield differences for the completed month; context only.

For identical daily dates in the completed month, average (long_yield percent minus short_yield percent); output percentage points.

Context only: inversion has variable lead and cannot confirm contraction. Re-steepening is not automatically an all-clear. Direct Treasury components replace the prior FRED spread without asserting identical historical vintages. A minimum of 60 paired daily observations is required; this is an operational history floor, not a calibrated forecast.

Definition 5.0.0 · us_yield_curve_10y3m
VALIDATION MATURITY

Research informed

The yield curve is policy and recession-expectation context with a variable lead.

Supplied research and Federal Reserve context.

Canonical source observations
Period endingSource valueUnitQualityAvailable to ECO I
28 Aug 20264.73%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
31 Aug 20264.75%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
01 Sep 20264.79%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
02 Sep 20264.79%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
03 Sep 20264.77%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
04 Sep 20264.78%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
08 Sep 20264.8%Valid08 Sep 2026 · 22:03 UTC
09 Sep 20264.83%Valid10 Sep 2026 · 00:35 UTC

Original Treasury CSV · b0bc2b496c2a… ↗

Original Treasury CSV · 6c26fbaba604… ↗

Original Treasury CSV · a14a321adffd… ↗

Showing 3 of 3 retained source files. All retained source file hashes (JSON) ↗

Original annual source files (CC0), including maturities outside this indicator. File hashes identify the exact retrieved bytes; these are not historical point-in-time vintages.

Chart source observations · 173 periods in this windowCanonical source observations, %173 observed values from 2026-01-02 to 2026-09-09. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query.3.884.144.44.664.922026-01-02: 4.19 %2026-01-05: 4.17 %2026-01-06: 4.18 %2026-01-07: 4.15 %2026-01-08: 4.19 %2026-01-09: 4.18 %2026-01-12: 4.19 %2026-01-13: 4.18 %2026-01-14: 4.15 %2026-01-15: 4.17 %2026-01-16: 4.24 %2026-01-20: 4.3 %2026-01-21: 4.26 %2026-01-22: 4.26 %2026-01-23: 4.24 %2026-01-26: 4.22 %2026-01-27: 4.24 %2026-01-28: 4.26 %2026-01-29: 4.24 %2026-01-30: 4.26 %2026-02-02: 4.29 %2026-02-03: 4.28 %2026-02-04: 4.29 %2026-02-05: 4.21 %2026-02-06: 4.22 %2026-02-09: 4.22 %2026-02-10: 4.16 %2026-02-11: 4.18 %2026-02-12: 4.09 %2026-02-13: 4.04 %2026-02-17: 4.05 %2026-02-18: 4.09 %2026-02-19: 4.08 %2026-02-20: 4.08 %2026-02-23: 4.03 %2026-02-24: 4.04 %2026-02-25: 4.05 %2026-02-26: 4.02 %2026-02-27: 3.97 %2026-03-02: 4.05 %2026-03-03: 4.06 %2026-03-04: 4.09 %2026-03-05: 4.13 %2026-03-06: 4.15 %2026-03-09: 4.12 %2026-03-10: 4.15 %2026-03-11: 4.21 %2026-03-12: 4.27 %2026-03-13: 4.28 %2026-03-16: 4.23 %2026-03-17: 4.2 %2026-03-18: 4.26 %2026-03-19: 4.25 %2026-03-20: 4.39 %2026-03-23: 4.34 %2026-03-24: 4.39 %2026-03-25: 4.33 %2026-03-26: 4.42 %2026-03-27: 4.44 %2026-03-30: 4.35 %2026-03-31: 4.3 %2026-04-01: 4.33 %2026-04-02: 4.31 %2026-04-03: 4.35 %2026-04-06: 4.34 %2026-04-07: 4.33 %2026-04-08: 4.29 %2026-04-09: 4.29 %2026-04-10: 4.31 %2026-04-13: 4.3 %2026-04-14: 4.26 %2026-04-15: 4.29 %2026-04-16: 4.32 %2026-04-17: 4.26 %2026-04-20: 4.26 %2026-04-21: 4.3 %2026-04-22: 4.3 %2026-04-23: 4.34 %2026-04-24: 4.31 %2026-04-27: 4.35 %2026-04-28: 4.36 %2026-04-29: 4.42 %2026-04-30: 4.4 %2026-05-01: 4.39 %2026-05-04: 4.45 %2026-05-05: 4.43 %2026-05-06: 4.36 %2026-05-07: 4.41 %2026-05-08: 4.38 %2026-05-11: 4.42 %2026-05-12: 4.46 %2026-05-13: 4.46 %2026-05-14: 4.47 %2026-05-15: 4.59 %2026-05-18: 4.61 %2026-05-19: 4.67 %2026-05-20: 4.57 %2026-05-21: 4.57 %2026-05-22: 4.56 %2026-05-26: 4.5 %2026-05-27: 4.48 %2026-05-28: 4.45 %2026-05-29: 4.45 %2026-06-01: 4.47 %2026-06-02: 4.46 %2026-06-03: 4.49 %2026-06-04: 4.47 %2026-06-05: 4.55 %2026-06-08: 4.56 %2026-06-09: 4.53 %2026-06-10: 4.55 %2026-06-11: 4.45 %2026-06-12: 4.48 %2026-06-15: 4.47 %2026-06-16: 4.43 %2026-06-17: 4.49 %2026-06-18: 4.46 %2026-06-22: 4.51 %2026-06-23: 4.5 %2026-06-24: 4.41 %2026-06-25: 4.4 %2026-06-26: 4.38 %2026-06-29: 4.38 %2026-06-30: 4.44 %2026-07-01: 4.48 %2026-07-02: 4.49 %2026-07-06: 4.48 %2026-07-07: 4.55 %2026-07-08: 4.56 %2026-07-09: 4.54 %2026-07-10: 4.56 %2026-07-13: 4.62 %2026-07-14: 4.58 %2026-07-15: 4.55 %2026-07-16: 4.57 %2026-07-17: 4.55 %2026-07-20: 4.6 %2026-07-21: 4.63 %2026-07-22: 4.67 %2026-07-23: 4.71 %2026-07-24: 4.69 %2026-07-27: 4.65 %2026-07-28: 4.61 %2026-07-29: 4.67 %2026-07-30: 4.68 %2026-07-31: 4.75 %2026-08-03: 4.7 %2026-08-04: 4.63 %2026-08-05: 4.63 %2026-08-06: 4.69 %2026-08-07: 4.65 %2026-08-10: 4.72 %2026-08-11: 4.7 %2026-08-12: 4.68 %2026-08-13: 4.63 %2026-08-14: 4.68 %2026-08-17: 4.72 %2026-08-18: 4.71 %2026-08-19: 4.65 %2026-08-20: 4.69 %2026-08-21: 4.74 %2026-08-24: 4.7 %2026-08-25: 4.64 %2026-08-26: 4.66 %2026-08-27: 4.67 %2026-08-28: 4.73 %2026-08-31: 4.75 %2026-09-01: 4.79 %2026-09-02: 4.79 %2026-09-03: 4.77 %2026-09-04: 4.78 %2026-09-08: 4.8 %2026-09-09: 4.83 %02 Jan 202607 May 202609 Sep 2026

Showing periods 1–173 of 173 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.

Uses snapshot-selected vintages. The final eight exact values in this window are tabulated above. The pinned JSON query provides all matching observations and provenance; follow its cursor for further pages.

Canonical source observations
Period endingSource valueUnitQualityAvailable to ECO I
28 Aug 20263.9%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
31 Aug 20263.91%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
01 Sep 20263.92%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
02 Sep 20263.92%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
03 Sep 20263.89%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
04 Sep 20263.91%Valid05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC
08 Sep 20263.94%Valid08 Sep 2026 · 22:03 UTC
09 Sep 20263.95%Valid10 Sep 2026 · 00:35 UTC

Original Treasury CSV · b0bc2b496c2a… ↗

Original Treasury CSV · 6c26fbaba604… ↗

Original Treasury CSV · a14a321adffd… ↗

Showing 3 of 3 retained source files. All retained source file hashes (JSON) ↗

Original annual source files (CC0), including maturities outside this indicator. File hashes identify the exact retrieved bytes; these are not historical point-in-time vintages.

Chart source observations · 173 periods in this windowCanonical source observations, %173 observed values from 2026-01-02 to 2026-09-09. Horizontal position follows economic dates. Lines stop at explicitly missing source periods. Recent exact values follow in the table; all retained readings are available through the pinned JSON query.3.593.693.793.893.992026-01-02: 3.65 %2026-01-05: 3.64 %2026-01-06: 3.63 %2026-01-07: 3.62 %2026-01-08: 3.62 %2026-01-09: 3.62 %2026-01-12: 3.67 %2026-01-13: 3.67 %2026-01-14: 3.67 %2026-01-15: 3.68 %2026-01-16: 3.67 %2026-01-20: 3.7 %2026-01-21: 3.7 %2026-01-22: 3.71 %2026-01-23: 3.7 %2026-01-26: 3.67 %2026-01-27: 3.67 %2026-01-28: 3.68 %2026-01-29: 3.67 %2026-01-30: 3.67 %2026-02-02: 3.69 %2026-02-03: 3.69 %2026-02-04: 3.69 %2026-02-05: 3.67 %2026-02-06: 3.68 %2026-02-09: 3.69 %2026-02-10: 3.69 %2026-02-11: 3.7 %2026-02-12: 3.7 %2026-02-13: 3.68 %2026-02-17: 3.69 %2026-02-18: 3.7 %2026-02-19: 3.69 %2026-02-20: 3.69 %2026-02-23: 3.69 %2026-02-24: 3.69 %2026-02-25: 3.69 %2026-02-26: 3.68 %2026-02-27: 3.67 %2026-03-02: 3.72 %2026-03-03: 3.71 %2026-03-04: 3.71 %2026-03-05: 3.7 %2026-03-06: 3.69 %2026-03-09: 3.71 %2026-03-10: 3.71 %2026-03-11: 3.71 %2026-03-12: 3.72 %2026-03-13: 3.72 %2026-03-16: 3.72 %2026-03-17: 3.72 %2026-03-18: 3.73 %2026-03-19: 3.73 %2026-03-20: 3.74 %2026-03-23: 3.74 %2026-03-24: 3.74 %2026-03-25: 3.73 %2026-03-26: 3.73 %2026-03-27: 3.73 %2026-03-30: 3.71 %2026-03-31: 3.7 %2026-04-01: 3.7 %2026-04-02: 3.7 %2026-04-03: 3.71 %2026-04-06: 3.72 %2026-04-07: 3.71 %2026-04-08: 3.69 %2026-04-09: 3.68 %2026-04-10: 3.69 %2026-04-13: 3.71 %2026-04-14: 3.71 %2026-04-15: 3.71 %2026-04-16: 3.7 %2026-04-17: 3.7 %2026-04-20: 3.71 %2026-04-21: 3.69 %2026-04-22: 3.69 %2026-04-23: 3.69 %2026-04-24: 3.69 %2026-04-27: 3.68 %2026-04-28: 3.68 %2026-04-29: 3.68 %2026-04-30: 3.68 %2026-05-01: 3.68 %2026-05-04: 3.7 %2026-05-05: 3.69 %2026-05-06: 3.69 %2026-05-07: 3.69 %2026-05-08: 3.69 %2026-05-11: 3.7 %2026-05-12: 3.7 %2026-05-13: 3.69 %2026-05-14: 3.69 %2026-05-15: 3.69 %2026-05-18: 3.68 %2026-05-19: 3.67 %2026-05-20: 3.65 %2026-05-21: 3.68 %2026-05-22: 3.68 %2026-05-26: 3.68 %2026-05-27: 3.68 %2026-05-28: 3.69 %2026-05-29: 3.69 %2026-06-01: 3.78 %2026-06-02: 3.77 %2026-06-03: 3.78 %2026-06-04: 3.78 %2026-06-05: 3.78 %2026-06-08: 3.8 %2026-06-09: 3.79 %2026-06-10: 3.79 %2026-06-11: 3.78 %2026-06-12: 3.78 %2026-06-15: 3.79 %2026-06-16: 3.79 %2026-06-17: 3.83 %2026-06-18: 3.83 %2026-06-22: 3.85 %2026-06-23: 3.85 %2026-06-24: 3.85 %2026-06-25: 3.84 %2026-06-26: 3.83 %2026-06-29: 3.87 %2026-06-30: 3.87 %2026-07-01: 3.85 %2026-07-02: 3.82 %2026-07-06: 3.87 %2026-07-07: 3.86 %2026-07-08: 3.87 %2026-07-09: 3.83 %2026-07-10: 3.85 %2026-07-13: 3.89 %2026-07-14: 3.84 %2026-07-15: 3.83 %2026-07-16: 3.84 %2026-07-17: 3.85 %2026-07-20: 3.86 %2026-07-21: 3.87 %2026-07-22: 3.89 %2026-07-23: 3.95 %2026-07-24: 3.96 %2026-07-27: 3.96 %2026-07-28: 3.9 %2026-07-29: 3.83 %2026-07-30: 3.82 %2026-07-31: 3.83 %2026-08-03: 3.91 %2026-08-04: 3.89 %2026-08-05: 3.89 %2026-08-06: 3.9 %2026-08-07: 3.87 %2026-08-10: 3.89 %2026-08-11: 3.89 %2026-08-12: 3.87 %2026-08-13: 3.87 %2026-08-14: 3.86 %2026-08-17: 3.87 %2026-08-18: 3.86 %2026-08-19: 3.86 %2026-08-20: 3.87 %2026-08-21: 3.88 %2026-08-24: 3.87 %2026-08-25: 3.86 %2026-08-26: 3.85 %2026-08-27: 3.84 %2026-08-28: 3.9 %2026-08-31: 3.91 %2026-09-01: 3.92 %2026-09-02: 3.92 %2026-09-03: 3.89 %2026-09-04: 3.91 %2026-09-08: 3.94 %2026-09-09: 3.95 %02 Jan 202607 May 202609 Sep 2026

Showing periods 1–173 of 173 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.

Uses snapshot-selected vintages. The final eight exact values in this window are tabulated above. The pinned JSON query provides all matching observations and provenance; follow its cursor for further pages.

Snapshot identity & machine-readable report
Snapshot
ero_us_macro_financial_20260910T003539Z_f004bde27e96
Profile version
10.0.0
Generated
10 Sep 2026 · 00:47 UTC
Analytical content SHA-256
f004bde27e969e3c81739b5588813c41b24e66d3926e28a0455a2692f9797820
Open the pinned JSON report

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Data access dates are supplied as retrieved_at in canonical observations. Latest retained BLS access: 05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC. BLS source terms

Source: BIS debt service ratio statistics. Model-based estimates. ECO I's calculations and interpretation are its own; BIS does not endorse them. BIS data are provided free of charge with attribution. BIS statistical-use terms