Showing periods 1–6 of 6 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.
Uses the data available in this saved assessment; later revisions may change historical values. This reconstructed chart does not show what was known on each historical date. Missing source periods break the line; unavailable metric values are omitted. Quality is evaluated at the assessment date.
Exact values · final 12 periods in this chart window
Exact plotted metric readings
Economic period
Value
Unit
Quality
31 Mar 2026
0.53
percentage points
Stale
30 Apr 2026
0.62
percentage points
Stale
31 May 2026
0.8
percentage points
Stale
30 Jun 2026
0.66
percentage points
Stale
31 Jul 2026
0.73
percentage points
Stale
31 Aug 2026
0.81
percentage points
Valid
Economic period & freshness
Calculation uses the completed evaluation period. Source age and retrieval timing are separate from the value's economic period and availability. Source status uses configured economic-age thresholds, not a release calendar.
Source timing diagnostics
Input
Latest source period
Observation age
Available to ECO I
Source status
Treasury 10-year par yield
09 Sep 2026
1 days
10 Sep 2026 · 00:35 UTC
Current
Treasury 3-month par yield
09 Sep 2026
1 days
10 Sep 2026 · 00:35 UTC
Current
THE PUBLISHED TRANSFORM
What this value measures
Mean of paired daily Treasury constant-maturity par-yield differences for the completed month; context only.
For identical daily dates in the completed month, average (long_yield percent minus short_yield percent); output percentage points.
Context only: inversion has variable lead and cannot confirm contraction. Re-steepening is not automatically an all-clear. Direct Treasury components replace the prior FRED spread without asserting identical historical vintages. A minimum of 60 paired daily observations is required; this is an operational history floor, not a calibrated forecast.
Original annual source files (CC0), including maturities outside this indicator. File hashes identify the exact retrieved bytes; these are not historical point-in-time vintages.
Chart source observations · 173 periods in this window
Showing periods 1–173 of 173 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.
Uses snapshot-selected vintages. The final eight exact values in this window are tabulated above. The pinned JSON query provides all matching observations and provenance; follow its cursor for further pages.
Original annual source files (CC0), including maturities outside this indicator. File hashes identify the exact retrieved bytes; these are not historical point-in-time vintages.
Chart source observations · 173 periods in this window
Showing periods 1–173 of 173 in this date range. Each chart page contains at most 180 original periods; values are not downsampled. All retained snapshot-selected periods are available.
Uses snapshot-selected vintages. The final eight exact values in this window are tabulated above. The pinned JSON query provides all matching observations and provenance; follow its cursor for further pages.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Data access dates are supplied as retrieved_at in canonical observations. Latest retained BLS access: 05 Sep 2026 · 21:45 UTC. BLS source terms
Source: BIS debt service ratio statistics. Model-based estimates. ECO I's calculations and interpretation are its own; BIS does not endorse them. BIS data are provided free of charge with attribution. BIS statistical-use terms